Analysis
View AllThe Future of U.S. Bases in the Gulf
The war between the United States and Iran revealed the vulnerability of static U.S. bases, while also showcasing Gulf Arab states’ capacity – bolstered with U.S. hardware and training – to intercept most Iranian strikes on their own, raising new questions about U.S.-Gulf security partnerships.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE Publicly Reconcile
Saudi-Emirati public reconciliation, a result of hard-earned lessons about the difficulty of going it alone, bodes well for a region at war and under attack, but there are still issues left to resolve.
Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making
Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.
Striking the Grid: Iran’s Campaign Against Kuwaiti Water
Hitting the systems that keep Gulf populations supplied with water and power is a threshold Iran now appears willing to cross.
Aug 7, 2026
The Hidden Ayatollah Denies Seeking the President’s Dismissal
The August 7 edition of the Iran Media Review examines an Iranian newspaper debunking an official’s claim to have the ear of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Aug 4, 2026
The IRGC Warns of the “End of Calm at Aramco”
The August 4 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian media responses to Saudi strikes in Iraq and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Jul 31, 2026
Javan Daily: “Iran’s War and Negotiation Plan”
The July 31 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an Iranian article arguing that Iran is following its own timetable and agenda on negotiations and escalation.
Jul 28, 2026
A Weakened Hezbollah Remains Central to Iran’s Security Strategy
The July 28 edition of the Iran Media Review considers an open letter from Iran’s supreme leader to Hezbollah in Lebanon pledging continued support.
Jul 31, 2026
Data Confirms a Large Economic Contraction in Saudi Arabia in the Second Quarter
The Saudi economy contracted sharply in the second quarter of 2026. Any recovery will be slowed by the recent renewal of hostilities in the region.
May 6, 2026
Spending Surge Puts Saudi Budget in Large First Quarter Deficit
The Saudi budget recorded a large deficit in the first quarter of 2026 as spending surged, but higher oil revenue during the rest of the year should limit the size of the annual fiscal deficit.
May 5, 2026
Gulf PMIs Raise Specter of Stagflation
Business conditions in the Gulf generally improved in April, but they remained weaker than before the Iran war. There are signs that price pressures are increasing as the conflict impedes trade.
The Iran War and the Saudi Economy
Data shows that the Saudi economy is being negatively affected by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and the impact will likely continue for the next few months at least.
Ballad: Moza Almatrooshi’s Homage to the Landscape
Moza Almatrooshi, an Emirati artist and chef, reflects on the inaugural season of ballad, her community culinary initiative.
Ammar Alsabban: Superman With a Saudi Accent
With passions as diverse as puppetry, podcasting, and superheroes, Ammar Alsabban is redefining the creative limits of Saudi identity.
Rahina: A Jeweler’s Ode to Dhofari Heritage
Through Rahina, Fatma al-Najjar is exploring her Dhofari heritage and tapping into ancestral memories, one piece of jewelry at a time.
10 min read
Independent Researchers Are Advancing UAE History on Social Media
Independent researchers and informal collaboratives have been connecting through social media to fill in gaps in popular knowledge of the United Arab Emirates’ pre-state era.
A New Gulf Partnership
In May, President Donald J. Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf that signals a new era in U.S.-Gulf relations. AGSI's A New Gulf Partnership series explores the ways U.S. strategic relations with these countries are evolving and offers policy recommendations for the U.S. administration to maximize political and economic influence.
Nov 13, 2024
Energy and Climate Initiative
AGSIW’s Energy and Climate Initiative explores Gulf energy and climate policies, technological advances, and pressing political, social, and environmental issues ahead of COP28.
Nov 5, 2024
U.S. Presidential Election
AGSIW’s U.S. Presidential Election series explores Gulf perspectives on the 2024 election and considers how the election results may shape the future of U.S. engagement in the Gulf region.
Sep 6, 2024
Trees of the Gulf
This series looks at the vital role certain trees play in the region's collective memory, survival, and plans for the future.
All Analysis
The Future of U.S. Bases in the Gulf
The war between the United States and Iran revealed the vulnerability of static U.S. bases, while also showcasing Gulf Arab states’ capacity – bolstered with U.S. hardware and training – to intercept most Iranian strikes on their own, raising new questions about U.S.-Gulf security partnerships.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE Publicly Reconcile
Saudi-Emirati public reconciliation, a result of hard-earned lessons about the difficulty of going it alone, bodes well for a region at war and under attack, but there are still issues left to resolve.
Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making
Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.
Striking the Grid: Iran’s Campaign Against Kuwaiti Water
Hitting the systems that keep Gulf populations supplied with water and power is a threshold Iran now appears willing to cross.
The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.
The Trump Presidency, Iran War, and U.S.-Gulf Economic Relationship
The outbreak of the Iran war has halted the deepening of the economic relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries. While likely temporary, it could take some time before the upward trajectory is restored.
