Analysis
View AllAramco and the Saudi Government Budget
Payments by Aramco are still the key driver of government revenue in Saudi Arabia despite the notable increase in non-oil revenue, particularly from the value-added tax, in recent years.
9 min read
The U.S.-China-Iran Oil Triangle in Flux
The coming weeks will offer clarity about whether President Trump’s claim – “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran” – signals an informal, recalibration of Washington’s Iran sanctions strategy or a tactical feint without lasting repercussions.
Israel-Iran Conflict Reveals Resilience and Vulnerability of GCC Economies
The latest regional conflict reinforced how difficult it is to severely disrupt economic momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council while highlighting genuine threats to economic security and public safety in the region.
Why the Houthis Went Missing in Action
If Iran decides to continue retaliation, the Houthis will likely be part of that response at some point.
Jul 1, 2025
Fragile Cease-Fire, Succession Anxiety, and Internal Rifts
The July 1 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian official and media commentary about Iran’s future after the cease-fire with Israel and the United States.
Jun 27, 2025
For Ayatollah Khamenei, Survival Is Victory
The June 27 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Ayatollah Khamenei’s remarks declaring Iran’s “victory” in the conflict with Israel and the United States.
Jun 24, 2025
Cease-Fire
The June 24 edition of the Iran Media Review evaluates Iranian media comments in the wake of Iran’s fragile cease-fire with Israel and the United States.
Jun 20, 2025
Iran: Spy Scare and Fear of Treason
The June 20 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian commentary on the regime’s vulnerability to internal espionage and subversion.
Jul 1, 2025
The IMF Comments on the Saudi Economy and Policy Framework
The International Monetary Fund continues to endorse the direction of economic reform in Saudi Arabia but notes that risks from oil price uncertainty and strong credit growth will need to be carefully managed to keep the economy on a strong growth trajectory.
Apr 23, 2025
Saudi Current Account in Deficit in 2024 Despite High Oil Prices
The Saudi current account moved into a small deficit in 2024 despite oil prices of $80 per barrel. A return to a surplus is unlikely unless oil revenue moves sharply higher.
Apr 9, 2025
What Do Lower Oil Prices Mean for the Saudi Budget?
The sharp drop in oil prices over the past week will result in a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing.
Mar 28, 2025
Positive Momentum Continues in the Saudi Labor Market
Robust growth in the non-oil economy and ongoing reforms are driving increased employment and labor force participation rates and lower unemployment among Saudi nationals.
Rahina: A Jeweler’s Ode to Dhofari Heritage
Through Rahina, Fatma al-Najjar is exploring her Dhofari heritage and tapping into ancestral memories, one piece of jewelry at a time.
10 min read
Independent Researchers Are Advancing UAE History on Social Media
Independent researchers and informal collaboratives have been connecting through social media to fill in gaps in popular knowledge of the United Arab Emirates’ pre-state era.
Manama Story: Preserving the Soul of the City
The Manama Story project seeks to preserve the history of the Bahraini city, one archive at a time.
Fablemill: Bringing Stories From the Region to Life
Through Fablemill, Eman Alsabah and her team are creating content that celebrates the region’s diverse stories and speaks to a global audience.
A New Gulf Partnership
In May, President Donald J. Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf that signals a new era in U.S.-Gulf relations. AGSI's A New Gulf Partnership series explores the ways U.S. strategic relations with these countries are evolving and offers policy recommendations for the U.S. administration to maximize political and economic influence.
Nov 13, 2024
Energy and Climate Initiative
AGSIW’s Energy and Climate Initiative explores Gulf energy and climate policies, technological advances, and pressing political, social, and environmental issues ahead of COP28.
Nov 5, 2024
U.S. Presidential Election
AGSIW’s U.S. Presidential Election series explores Gulf perspectives on the 2024 election and considers how the election results may shape the future of U.S. engagement in the Gulf region.
Sep 6, 2024
Trees of the Gulf
This series looks at the vital role certain trees play in the region's collective memory, survival, and plans for the future.
All Analysis
Aramco and the Saudi Government Budget
Payments by Aramco are still the key driver of government revenue in Saudi Arabia despite the notable increase in non-oil revenue, particularly from the value-added tax, in recent years.
9 min read
The U.S.-China-Iran Oil Triangle in Flux
The coming weeks will offer clarity about whether President Trump’s claim – “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran” – signals an informal, recalibration of Washington’s Iran sanctions strategy or a tactical feint without lasting repercussions.
Israel-Iran Conflict Reveals Resilience and Vulnerability of GCC Economies
The latest regional conflict reinforced how difficult it is to severely disrupt economic momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council while highlighting genuine threats to economic security and public safety in the region.
Why the Houthis Went Missing in Action
If Iran decides to continue retaliation, the Houthis will likely be part of that response at some point.
Russia’s Role in Iran’s Drone and Missile Gamble
Moscow relied on Iranian drones in Ukraine. Now that the situation is reversed, will Russia help Iran rebuild its deterrence after Israel’s deep strikes?
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
