Energy

With the Strait of Hormuz closed and alternative export routes infeasible in the short term, a comprehensive agreement with Erbil can help Baghdad address its critical lack of oil export capability.

Abu Dhabi’s departure from OPEC signals that discipline within the group is becoming harder to sustain at a time when the global energy market is facing the prospect of a more volatile and uncertain future.

The oil market is no longer anchored by a shared baseline. Instead, it is being pulled in different directions by competing assumptions about geopolitics, prices, and economic resilience.

The conflict with Iran has curtailed the supply of oil from the Gulf, pushing up the price of the medium and heavier grades it usually exports relative to lighter grades.

On March 11, AGSI hosted a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

Roughly 20% of global oil supply is now stranded behind the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to reach global markets.

The longer the conflict lasts, and the more damage to energy facilities, the greater the risk of oil market tightness, rising prices, and stranded commodities.

After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.