Bahrain

The outbreak of the Iran war has halted the deepening of the economic relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries. While likely temporary, it could take some time before the upward trajectory is restored.

Despite the massive disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, how Bahraini policymakers address structural vulnerabilities moving forward will be the critical determinant of the country’s longer-term economic outlook.

A strong relationship with the GCC acts as a stabilizing force for an inherently fragile Iraqi state. But to maintain this, Iraq needs to pair sophisticated regional diplomacy with assertive control over the nonstate actors operating within its borders.

On June 8, AGSI convened its Petro Diplomacy conference for the 12th consecutive year.

Gulf capitals are facing immediate policy choices around how to restore order in a regional setting that is greatly changed – for the worse – as a result of the Iran war.

One silver lining of the Iran conflict may be the emergence of new, more durable foundations for regional economic integration via more agile trade corridors in the Gulf and beyond.

The Iran conflict has arrived at the worst possible moment for Gulf sustainable finance, a sector already navigating fiscal strain, a global ESG backlash, and the unresolved tension between hydrocarbon revenue and transition capital.

For the Gulf Arab countries, the future is more important than the present, but it is unclear if Iran, the United States, and Israel have the same vision.