Regional Affairs

With the Iran war, large AI projects now sit inside a regional battlespace. The next phase of Gulf AI strategy will need to focus on resilience, continuity, and trusted infrastructure, not only capital and scale.

For now, China is a stuck actor – drifting until external conditions force a decision or create a window of opportunity.

As Iranian strikes exposed structural gaps, Gulf states are expanding their air defense architecture through new suppliers, lower-cost systems, and operational partnerships.

The blockade, artfully deployed, and a focus on coalition building, international law, and interests-based negotiations can help the United States and its Gulf allies extricate themselves from the current impasse.

As Iranian drones and missiles have rained down on the Gulf, the targeted states have found unexpected allies globally but little support from their Arab neighbors.

Operation Epic Fury has delivered tactical gains without a viable strategic end state. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Iran’s leadership has reorganized, and the diplomatic track has fractured.

In the future landscape of Gulf security, the United States may remain an essential arms supplier but wield less influence over force structure and military doctrine.

The oil market is no longer anchored by a shared baseline. Instead, it is being pulled in different directions by competing assumptions about geopolitics, prices, and economic resilience.