Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Debating Policy in Public: Iranian Elites Turn to YouTube
Rival camps within the Islamic Republic are increasingly turning to YouTube for policy debate, but there is a limit to the regime’s tolerance for that debate.
The Committee of Six and Strategic Decision Making in Iran
Remarks by Iran’s president offer a rare glimpse of how the Islamic Republic has adapted its decision making to the absence of its supreme leader.
Mohsen Rezaei at the Helm of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council
Under Rezaei, the SNSC could prove constructive or paralyze strategic decision making.
The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense
After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.
Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making
Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.
The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.
Events
Oct 6, 2026
Is the U.S.-Iran Stalemate a “New Normal” or the Prelude to Another Explosion?
On October 6, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iran stalemate and the prospects for a cease-fire.
Speakers
Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.
Speakers
Apr 21, 2026
Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability
On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.
Speakers
Mar 18, 2026
In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.
Speakers
Mar 2, 2026
After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition
On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Oct 30, 2026
Khamenei Calls for End to “Neither War Nor Peace”
The October 30 edition of the Iran Media Review considers proposals for a new Iranian strategy in the confrontation with the United States and Israel.
Oct 27, 2026
Qalibaf Defies, Sazandegi Regrets
The October 27 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights defiance from Iran’s parliamentary speaker and nostalgia from an Iranian newspaper.
Oct 23, 2026
Closing Borders: The Blockade Moves Inland
The October 23 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian admissions that U.S. economic warfare is pressuring Iran.
Oct 20, 2026
Who Authorized Iranian Strikes Against U.S. Vessels?
The October 20 edition of the Iran Media Review examines IRGC messaging about July 7 strikes against U.S. Navy vessels and the debate surrounding the confirmation of a new Iranian defense minister.
Oct 16, 2026
Qalibaf’s New Equation: War, Negotiation, and Deterrence
The October 16 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights the call by Iran’s parliamentary speaker for a combination of war and negotiation to establish deterrence against further attacks on Iran.
Oct 13, 2026
From Neighbor to Target: Iranian Analysts on the UAE
The October 13 edition of the Iran Media Review explores calls by senior Iranian strategists for Iran to target the United Arab Emirates and Dubai’s airport.
