Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary
An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.
Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis
Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.
Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict
Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?
U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.
Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts
AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.
34 min read
Events
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Jan 9, 2024
2024 Outlook
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Nov 7, 2025
Foreign Minister Araghchi: Negotiations With the U.S. Not a “Positive Experience”
The November 7 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an address by the Iranian foreign minister about past negotiations with the United States.
Nov 4, 2025
Foreign Minister Araghchi on Future Negotiations With the United States
The November 4 edition of the Iran Media Review examines comments by Iran’s foreign minister about the United States’ “unreasonable demands” on Iran.
Oct 31, 2025
Iran: Bleak Economic “Future” Prospects
The October 31 edition of the Iran Media Review considers a report addressing the fragility of Iran’s state-linked financial sector.
Oct 28, 2025
Former IRGC Chief Weighs In on Potential for Renewed Conflict With Israel
The October 28 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights an interview with former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari about the possibility of a new war with Israel.
Oct 24, 2025
Iranian “Businessman” Reports Record-High Oil Exports Despite Sanctions
The October 24 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a report by an Iranian “businessman” claiming that Iran’s oil exports are at a record high and rising.
Oct 21, 2025
Khamenei Rules Out “Deal” Involving Iran’s Missile Program
The October 21 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights comments by Ayatollah Khamenei rejecting a deal with the United States that would limit Iran’s missile program.
