Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?
The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.
Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme
Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.
Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.
Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival
Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.
Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective
The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.
Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?
Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.
Events
Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.
Speakers
Apr 21, 2026
Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability
On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.
Speakers
Mar 18, 2026
In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.
Speakers
Mar 2, 2026
After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition
On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Jul 31, 2026
Javan Daily: “Iran’s War and Negotiation Plan”
The July 31 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an Iranian article arguing that Iran is following its own timetable and agenda on negotiations and escalation.
Jul 28, 2026
A Weakened Hezbollah Remains Central to Iran’s Security Strategy
The July 28 edition of the Iran Media Review considers an open letter from Iran’s supreme leader to Hezbollah in Lebanon pledging continued support.
Jul 24, 2026
Iran Vows Retaliatory Attacks Across the Region and Beyond
The July 24 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights messages from Iran’s armed forces threatening to attack regional infrastructure and U.K. military bases.
Jul 21, 2026
Fight, Negotiate – or Both?
The July 21 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian media messaging about whether Iran should escalate or negotiate with the United States.
Jul 17, 2026
Qalibaf Emerges as Iran’s De Facto Wartime Leader
The July 17 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a written statement by Iran’s parliamentary speaker laying out Iran’s strategy for the future of the conflict.
Jul 15, 2026
Iranian Parliament Presses for Escalation
The July 15 edition of the Iran Media Review examines remarks by an Iranian hard-liner advocating for Iran to escalate against the United States without abandoning the U.S.-Iran cease-fire.
