Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense
After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.
Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making
Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.
The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.
How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?
The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.
Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme
Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.
Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.
Events
Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.
Speakers
Apr 21, 2026
Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability
On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.
Speakers
Mar 18, 2026
In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.
Speakers
Mar 2, 2026
After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition
On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Sep 15, 2026
Despite Tactical Victories, Iran Struggles to Restore Deterrence
The September 15 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian statements on a possible nuclear bomb, Iran’s relationship with the UAE, and developments in Yemen.
Sep 11, 2026
Diminishing Importance of the Straits?
The September 11 edition of the Iran Media Review contrasts hard-liners’ celebration of oil prices rising with a technocratic Iranian newspaper’s warning that the regime’s ability to take the world economy hostage is diminishing.
Sep 8, 2026
Mohsen Rezaei Explains Tehran’s Strategy
The September 8 edition of the Iran Media Review outlines the Iranian Supreme National Security Council secretary’s remarks on Iran’s strategic response to the U.S. naval blockade.
Sep 4, 2026
Is Iran Planning to Withdraw From the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?
The September 4 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian messaging about the possibility of Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Sep 1, 2026
Decoding President Pezeshkian
The September 1 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an interview with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Aug 28, 2026
Iran Signals Interest in Reviving Hormuz Deal While Warning of Psychological Warfare
The August 28 edition of the Iran Media Review examines statements by Iranian officials suggesting openness to restarting negotiation with the United States and concern about domestic discontent.
