Iran

For now, China is a stuck actor – drifting until external conditions force a decision or create a window of opportunity.

Billions of dollars in infrastructure destruction from the war, combined with decades of mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions, has sparked an unprecedented economic crisis in Iran.

As Iranian strikes exposed structural gaps, Gulf states are expanding their air defense architecture through new suppliers, lower-cost systems, and operational partnerships.

The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.

The blockade, artfully deployed, and a focus on coalition building, international law, and interests-based negotiations can help the United States and its Gulf allies extricate themselves from the current impasse.

Operation Epic Fury has delivered tactical gains without a viable strategic end state. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Iran’s leadership has reorganized, and the diplomatic track has fractured.

With Iran, Qatar is balancing dialogue with deterrence.

On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.