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Robert Mogielnicki

Senior Resident Scholar, AGSI

Robert Mogielnicki is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is also an Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University and a Term Member at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mogielnicki is a leading expert on the Gulf states and their role in the global economy. A specialist in the political economy of the region, he is particularly interested in how these geostrategic states engage in processes of economic transformation through trade and investment policies, labor market interventions, economic diversification, and technological innovation. Mogielnicki created and leads the China-Gulf Initiative and the technology-focused Next Gen Gulf research series. He regularly briefs corporate leaders, senior policymakers, new ambassadors, and members of the media.

Mogielnicki teaches a graduate-level seminar on China-Middle East and North Africa relations as an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, and he also served as a Professorial Lecturer at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.  Mogielnicki is a research mentor for undergraduate students through the Georgetown University Research Opportunities Program (GUROP) and the Laidlaw Undergraduate Leadership and Research Scholarship Programme.

He is a Member of the Board of Advisors of Henley & Partners, a global citizenship and residence advisory firm. The Middle East Policy Council listed Mogielnicki in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts. He has lectured and delivered talks at the World Bank, NATO, the U.S. State Department’s Foreign Service Institute, Chatham House, the International Monetary Fund, the London School of Economics and Political Science, the Council of the European Union, the European University Institute, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, and other prominent institutions.

Mogielnicki has worked across the U.S., Europe, and Middle East helping research-driven organizations better understand the MENA region and the economic implications of foreign policy choices. He possesses deep experience advising senior corporate and government decision makers on international political economy issues, and he excels at producing research for impact. Mogielnicki has worked with Eurasia Group, Oxford Economics, Freedom House, global law firms, and in many other consulting and advisory capacities. He previously served as a human resource development consultant for an Oxford-based research consultancy that operated across the Gulf region. Prior to his consulting career, he worked in journalism, covering political and economic developments in post-revolutionary Egypt and Tunisia.

Mogielnicki’s latest book project is an edited volume on sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia (Palgrave Macmillan, May 2025). He is also the author of A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States (Palgrave Macmillan 2021). Mogielnicki has authored book chapters on Middle Eastern labor market policies in Nationalization of Gulf Labour Markets (Palgrave, May 2023) and the political economy of natural gas markets in The Palgrave Handbook of Natural Gas and Global Energy Transitions (May 2022). He also published a chapter on China’s technology-related commercial engagement in the Middle East region for the Routledge Handbook on China – Middle East Relations (December 2021) as well as a technology-oriented chapter in the Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf: Challenges and Opportunities (Palgrave Macmillan, August 2021).

In addition to other academic and think tank publications, his work has appeared in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, Axios, The Banker, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, and World Politics Review. Mogielnicki regularly provides commentary for an extensive and diverse list of international media outlets, such as: The Economist, CNN, The New York Times, Bloomberg, Forbes, Nikkei Asian Review, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, BBC World News TV, ABC News, AFP, VOX, VOA, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, S&P Global, Nature, HuffPost, Deutsche Welle, The Telegraph, and Business Insider.

Mogielnicki holds a DPhil degree from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College and a MPhil degree in Modern Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Oxford’s St Antony’s College. He received his BA from Georgetown University with a double major in Arabic and Government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa. Mogielnicki speaks Modern Standard Arabic and the Egyptian dialect, and he possesses a working knowledge of the Tunisian dialect. He is a former recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Arabic Language Scholarship (2007-11) and served as a Critical Language Scholar in Tunisia in 2011.

Analysis

CLEAR ALL

Qatar’s Economic Trajectory Left Unchanged by Recent Attacks

Israeli and Iranian attacks on targets in Qatar are worrying developments for the small Gulf state, but they are unlikely to disrupt an expected acceleration of economic growth over the short and medium terms.

Robert Mogielnicki

11 min read

Tourists and locals stroll through Souq Waqif in Doha, Qatar, May 15. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

The Taxman Cometh to the Gulf

A forthcoming personal income tax in Oman is symbolically significant, but it ultimately confirms – rather than upends – regional tax trends.

Visitors and locals gather at the Mutrah Corniche in Muscat, Oman, April 11. (AP Photo/ Fatima Shbair)

Saudi-Indian Ties Poised for Cautious Growth

For Riyadh, developing stronger ties with India could yield sought-after economic dividends, but it comes with a mixed bag of regional and international implications.

Robert Mogielnicki

11 min read

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, April 22. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

Israel-Iran Conflict Reveals Resilience and Vulnerability of GCC Economies

The latest regional conflict reinforced how difficult it is to severely disrupt economic momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council while highlighting genuine threats to economic security and public safety in the region.

Robert Mogielnicki

10 min read

Delegates visit Saudi Arabia's pavilion during the Arabian Travel Market exhibition in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, April 29. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Events

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Oct 21, 2025

4:00pm - 6:00pm

Book Launch: A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia

On October 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the strategic economic significance of sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East-Asia investment corridor.

Register
From left to right: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, U.S. Ambassador to the UAE Martina Strong, President Donald J. Trump, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and ADIA Managing Director Hamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan participate in a business roundtable at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, May 16. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
From left to right: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, U.S. Ambassador to the UAE Martina Strong, President Donald J. Trump, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, and ADIA Managing Director Hamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan participate in a business roundtable at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, May 16. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Sep 18, 2025

Book Talk: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China’s Middle East Math

On September 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the trajectory of China's presence in the Middle East.

Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Fei, center, speaks at the opening of the China-Saudi Investment Conference in Beijing, December 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Fei, center, speaks at the opening of the China-Saudi Investment Conference in Beijing, December 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

May 8, 2025

From Petrodollar Partners to Geo-Economic Rivals? Washington and the Arab Gulf States

On May 8, AGSIW hosted a discussion on how U.S. geoeconomic policy is reshaping ties with Gulf states.

President Donald J. Trump shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's then deputy crown prince and defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, during a bilateral meeting, in Riyadh, May 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)
President Donald J. Trump shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's then deputy crown prince and defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, during a bilateral meeting, in Riyadh, May 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Jan 23, 2025

Outlook 2025: What Will the New Year Bring for the Gulf Region and U.S.-Gulf Relations?

On January 23, AGSIW hosted a discussion on what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.

Foreign ministers and delegates pose for a family photo after their meeting on Syria, following the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, January 12. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)
Foreign ministers and delegates pose for a family photo after their meeting on Syria, following the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, January 12. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

Jan 16, 2025

Follow the Money: Unpacking GCC Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment Activity

On January 16, AGSIW will host a discussion on the evolution of Gulf sovereign wealth fund investment.

A general view of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, January 3, 2019. (REUTERS/ Hamad I Mohammed)
A general view of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, January 3, 2019. (REUTERS/ Hamad I Mohammed)

Oct 22, 2024

Roundtable With Oman’s Ministry of Finance

On October 22, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Oman's economic reforms.

Omani women stand in the hotel lobby in the newly developed property, Al Mouj Muscat, in Muscat, Oman, February 11, 2019. (REUTERS/ Hamad I Mohammed)
Omani women stand in the hotel lobby in the newly developed property, Al Mouj Muscat, in Muscat, Oman, February 11, 2019. (REUTERS/ Hamad I Mohammed)

External Publications

A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia

This book on sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia brings together leading scholars and practitioners focusing on investment trends in two prominent and influential regions of the globe. (Palgrave Macmillan, May 2025)

Investment Dynamics in a Shifting U.S.-Gulf Arena

Investment flows between the United States and Gulf Arab countries are likely to remain a robust, promising economic domain, but new challenges have emerged.

A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States

This is the first book-length empirical study of free zones in Gulf Cooperation Council countries. (Palgrave Macmillan 2021)

The Technological Dimensions of China-MENA Economic Relations

This chapter, which examines the commercial technology linkages between China and the Middle East, is part of the Routledge Handbook on China – MENA Relations (January 2022).

Free Zones in Dubai: Accelerators for Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf?

This book chapter is based on research for a Gulf Research Meeting workshop in Cambridge, UK and appears in Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf: Challenges and Opportunities, Palgrave Macmillan (August 2021).