In Search of a Trump Administration Middle East Policy
President Trump's visit to the region raises the question of whether a definitive Trump administration Middle East policy may be starting to take shape
U.S. President Donald J. Trump welcomes Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan to the White House in Washington, DC, May 15. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Executive Summary
U.S. President Donald J. Trump is about to embark on his first overseas trip, with an emphasis on Middle East peace and security. His visit to the region raises the question of whether a definitive Trump administration Middle East policy may be starting to take shape, and how that process relates to both the policies and regional strategic circumstances that the new administration inherited from its immediate predecessor. There are several significant reasons to think a coherent new approach may be emerging, but also serious grounds – particularly given unprecedented unpredictability in U.S. Middle East policy – for doubting it. This paper seeks to identify and evaluate both perspectives, and provide a framework for appraising the ongoing evolution of U.S. Middle East policy under Trump.
Emerging key themes are:
Rebuilding ties with traditional allies
Countering Iran
Engaging on Israeli-Palestinian peace
Willingness to use military force
“Quiet diplomacy” on human rights
Ongoing problems include:
Policy incoherence
An arguable lack of U.S. leadership
Potential dangers of unrestrained rhetoric and ineffective military messaging
Institutional weaknesses, especially in the U.S. Department of State
Perils of sustained unpredictability for a status quo power
President Trump has led the United States into an impossible dilemma in which resuming and intensifying the war presents one set of alarming consequences while ending it under current circumstances offers at least as many disasters for Washington.
The Trump administration has positioned the United States at a crossroads between a new regime of containment against Iran or a historic drawdown of U.S. influence in the Gulf and broader Middle East.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi urged President Trump not to attack Iran, but now that the war is into its second month, leaving the current situation in place would be an unthinkable fiasco for them.
Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution.
