In Search of a Trump Administration Middle East Policy
President Trump's visit to the region raises the question of whether a definitive Trump administration Middle East policy may be starting to take shape
U.S. President Donald J. Trump welcomes Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan to the White House in Washington, DC, May 15. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Executive Summary
U.S. President Donald J. Trump is about to embark on his first overseas trip, with an emphasis on Middle East peace and security. His visit to the region raises the question of whether a definitive Trump administration Middle East policy may be starting to take shape, and how that process relates to both the policies and regional strategic circumstances that the new administration inherited from its immediate predecessor. There are several significant reasons to think a coherent new approach may be emerging, but also serious grounds – particularly given unprecedented unpredictability in U.S. Middle East policy – for doubting it. This paper seeks to identify and evaluate both perspectives, and provide a framework for appraising the ongoing evolution of U.S. Middle East policy under Trump.
Emerging key themes are:
Rebuilding ties with traditional allies
Countering Iran
Engaging on Israeli-Palestinian peace
Willingness to use military force
“Quiet diplomacy” on human rights
Ongoing problems include:
Policy incoherence
An arguable lack of U.S. leadership
Potential dangers of unrestrained rhetoric and ineffective military messaging
Institutional weaknesses, especially in the U.S. Department of State
Perils of sustained unpredictability for a status quo power
Morocco’s protests prompted gestures of support from GCC states, representing a fresh reminder of a long history of supporting each other in times of need.
The Southern Transitional Council is betting that if the South can be united under its leadership it can cordon the South off from the Houthis in the North, utilize oil and gas revenue, and create a stable and functioning state.
When the Saudi crown prince meets President Trump in Washington, the main topics of discussion are likely to be commercial deals, a defense pact, a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and normalization with Israel.
The GCC states now consider an attack on one to be an attack on all, and Saudi Arabia may be covered by a Pakistani rather than U.S. military umbrella.
On January 8, AGSI will host a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
