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Robert Mogielnicki

Non-Resident Fellow, AGSI

Robert Mogielnicki is a non-resident fellow and former senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is the Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center research fellow for 2025-26 and a Middle East advisor with Teneo. Mogielnicki is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the board of advisors of Henley & Partners. He is based in Paris where he founded and runs a Europe, Middle East, and Africa-focused investment and geoeconomic consulting firm, PoliSphere Advisory.

Mogielnicki is a leading expert on the Gulf states and their role in the global economy. A specialist in the political economy of the region, he is particularly interested in how these geostrategic states engage in processes of economic transformation through trade and investment policies, labor market interventions, economic diversification, and technological innovation. Mogielnicki created the China-Gulf Initiative and the technology-focused Next Gen Gulf research series. He regularly briefs corporate leaders, senior government leaders, new ambassadors, and members of the media.

Mogielnicki has taught a graduate-level seminar on China-Middle East and North Africa relations as an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service since 2021, and he also served as a professorial lecturer at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Mogielnicki is a research mentor for undergraduate students through the Georgetown University Research Opportunities Program and the Laidlaw Undergraduate Leadership and Research Scholarship Programme.

The Middle East Policy Council listed Mogielnicki in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts. He has lectured and delivered talks at the World Bank, NATO, the U.S. State Department’s Foreign Service Institute, Chatham House, the International Monetary Fund, the London School of Economics and Political Science, the Council of the European Union, the European University Institute, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, and other prominent institutions.

Mogielnicki has worked across the United States, Europe, and the Middle East helping research-driven organizations better understand the MENA region and the economic implications of foreign policy choices. He possesses deep experience advising senior corporate and government decision makers on international political economy issues, and he excels at producing research for impact. Mogielnicki has worked with Eurasia Group, Oxford Economics, Freedom House, global law firms, and in many other consulting and advisory capacities. He previously served as a human resource development consultant for an Oxford-based research consultancy that operated across the Gulf region. Prior to his consulting career, he worked in journalism, covering political and economic developments in post-revolutionary Egypt and Tunisia.

Mogielnicki’s latest book project is an edited volume on sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia (Palgrave Macmillan, May 2025). He is also the author of A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States (Palgrave Macmillan 2021). Mogielnicki has authored book chapters on Middle Eastern labor market policies in Nationalization of Gulf Labour Markets (Palgrave, May 2023) and the political economy of natural gas markets in The Palgrave Handbook of Natural Gas and Global Energy Transitions (May 2022). He also published a chapter on China’s technology-related commercial engagement in the Middle East for Routledge Handbook on China–Middle East Relations (December 2021) as well as a technology-oriented chapter in Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf: Challenges and Opportunities (Palgrave Macmillan, August 2021).

In addition to other academic and think tank publications, Mogielnicki’s work has appeared in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, Axios, The Banker, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, and World Politics Review. Mogielnicki regularly provides commentary for an extensive and diverse list of international media outlets, such as: The Economist, CNN, The New York Times, Bloomberg, Forbes, Nikkei Asian Review, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, BBC World News TV, ABC News, AFP, VOX, VOA, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, S&P Global, Nature, HuffPost, Deutsche Welle, The Telegraph, and Business Insider.

Mogielnicki holds a DPhil degree from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College and a MPhil degree in Modern Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Oxford’s St Antony’s College. He received his BA from Georgetown University with a double major in Arabic and Government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa. Mogielnicki speaks Modern Standard Arabic and the Egyptian dialect, and he possesses a working knowledge of the Tunisian dialect. He is a former recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Arabic Language Scholarship (2007-11) and served as a Critical Language Scholar in Tunisia in 2011.

Analysis

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China’s Sidelining in the Iran Conflict

The Iran conflict reinforces China’s short-term position as one of managing and mitigating risks rather than shaping outcomes that expand Chinese influence in the Middle East.

Robert Mogielnicki

11 min read

A Chinese-flagged oil tanker is moored at an oil terminal at Tsing Yi port in Hong Kong, China, March 19. (REUTERS/Joyce Zhou)

Markets Respond to the Iran Conflict

The early reactions of regional stock markets reflect serious concerns but not full-blown panic despite an unprecedented escalation of the Iran conflict.

Large fire and plume of smoke is visible after, according to the authorities, debris of an Iranian intercepted drone hit an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios

After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

16 min read

A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Oman Sets Its Economic Compass for the Year Ahead

A flurry of economic announcements and initiatives by the Omani government indicate a strong desire to sustain both reform progress and economic momentum amid potential headwinds.

An Omani couple stand on the Mutrah Corniche in Muscat, Oman, February 6. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Firmer Details Emerge on U.S.-Gulf AI Cooperation

U.S. authorizations for exporting advanced chips to the leading Gulf technology firms is sure to please regional authorities, who will push to broaden and accelerate technology collaboration with the United States.

President Donald J. Trump speaks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Elon Musk, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and others during the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center in Washington, November 19. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Four Priorities for Mohammed bin Salman in Washington

When the Saudi crown prince meets President Trump in Washington, the main topics of discussion are likely to be commercial deals, a defense pact, a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and normalization with Israel.

10 min read

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman listens during his meeting with President Donald J. Trump on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Events

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Mar 17, 2026

Investing Through Uncertainty: Capital, Technology, and the Future of Gulf Markets

On March 17, AGSI hosted a discussion on Gulf economic advancement.

Light traffic moves along a main road in downtown Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 7. (AP Photo/ Fatima Shbair)
Light traffic moves along a main road in downtown Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 7. (AP Photo/ Fatima Shbair)

Mar 11, 2026

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy

On March 11, AGSI hosted a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

Flames rise from an oil storage facility south of Tehran as strikes hit the city, Iran, March 7. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Flames rise from an oil storage facility south of Tehran as strikes hit the city, Iran, March 7. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Oct 21, 2025

Book Launch: A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia

On October 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the strategic economic significance of sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East-Asia investment corridor.

From left to right: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, U.S. Ambassador to the UAE Martina Strong, President Donald J. Trump, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and ADIA Managing Director Hamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan participate in a business roundtable at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, May 16. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
From left to right: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, U.S. Ambassador to the UAE Martina Strong, President Donald J. Trump, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, and ADIA Managing Director Hamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan participate in a business roundtable at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, May 16. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Sep 18, 2025

Book Talk: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China’s Middle East Math

On September 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the trajectory of China's presence in the Middle East.

Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Fei, center, speaks at the opening of the China-Saudi Investment Conference in Beijing, December 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Fei, center, speaks at the opening of the China-Saudi Investment Conference in Beijing, December 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

May 8, 2025

From Petrodollar Partners to Geo-Economic Rivals? Washington and the Arab Gulf States

On May 8, AGSIW hosted a discussion on how U.S. geoeconomic policy is reshaping ties with Gulf states.

President Donald J. Trump shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's then deputy crown prince and defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, during a bilateral meeting, in Riyadh, May 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)
President Donald J. Trump shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's then deputy crown prince and defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, during a bilateral meeting, in Riyadh, May 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Jan 23, 2025

Outlook 2025: What Will the New Year Bring for the Gulf Region and U.S.-Gulf Relations?

On January 23, AGSIW hosted a discussion on what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.

Foreign ministers and delegates pose for a family photo after their meeting on Syria, following the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, January 12. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)
Foreign ministers and delegates pose for a family photo after their meeting on Syria, following the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, January 12. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

External Publications

A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia

This book on sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia brings together leading scholars and practitioners focusing on investment trends in two prominent and influential regions of the globe. (Palgrave Macmillan, May 2025)

Investment Dynamics in a Shifting U.S.-Gulf Arena

Investment flows between the United States and Gulf Arab countries are likely to remain a robust, promising economic domain, but new challenges have emerged.

A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States

This is the first book-length empirical study of free zones in Gulf Cooperation Council countries. (Palgrave Macmillan 2021)

The Technological Dimensions of China-MENA Economic Relations

This chapter, which examines the commercial technology linkages between China and the Middle East, is part of the Routledge Handbook on China – MENA Relations (January 2022).

Free Zones in Dubai: Accelerators for Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf?

This book chapter is based on research for a Gulf Research Meeting workshop in Cambridge, UK and appears in Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf: Challenges and Opportunities, Palgrave Macmillan (August 2021).