"*" indicates required fields

Subscribe

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

China Leg is Key to Success of King Salman’s Asia Tour

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz is on the first leg of an unprecedented trip to several key countries in East Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, China, Japan, and the Maldives. This will be the first time a Saudi monarch has been to Japan, one of the world’s most important industrial powers and economies, and...

Hussein Ibish

7 min read

'Saudi Arabia's King Salman, left, stands next to Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak during a welcoming ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Feb. 26. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)'

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz is on the first leg of an unprecedented trip to several key countries in East Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, China, Japan, and the Maldives. This will be the first time a Saudi monarch has been to Japan, one of the world’s most important industrial powers and economies, and he will be the first to visit Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, since the 1970s. But the most multifaceted, significant, and, potentially, far-reaching destination on King Salman’s itinerary will be his visit to Beijing during the third leg of his trip. This East Asia tour, particularly the visit to China, as well as Saudi Arabia’s goals for outreach to Beijing, need to be understood in several broad contexts.

The tour is part of a Saudi regional and international diplomatic offensive on multiple fronts. Having ventured further than ever into the realm of hard power, particularly in Yemen, with, at best, mixed results, Riyadh seems to be seeking to bolster its diplomatic and political outreach, particularly throughout Asia. In this regard, King Salman is also scheduled to attend an Arab League summit in Jordan, at a time when Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners will be more firmly in the position of leadership in the Arab world than ever before.

This level of activity indicates major Saudi diplomatic outreach and a considerable expansion of its efforts to build and consolidate ties, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. It is highly significant that the king himself is stepping into the role of chief diplomat, underscoring not only his own hands-on leadership, but also the importance Riyadh attaches to this diplomatic initiative. The marathon diplomacy will be an important demonstration of the king’s personal vitality and functionality as monarch. He is 81-years old, and Saudi officials are continuously denying rumors about his physical health and mental acuity. If he can perform well with this ambitious schedule, such rumors will be squelched for some time. This is particularly important because of concerns regarding succession in the kingdom, and a purported, although officially denied, rivalry between the crown prince and deputy crown prince.

In addition, there are three crucial registers at which the Chinese part of this Saudi diplomatic outreach should be understood.

First, Saudi Arabia is seeking to strengthen strategic ties with China – including weapons sales, military and intelligence cooperation, and diplomatic coordination ­– in recognition of growing Chinese influence globally and in several key regions of Saudi interest. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its support base and weapons supply chain have gained steam, given the perceived U.S. pullback from Middle East engagement; Washington’s differences with Saudi Arabia over Iran, Syria, and other issues; and the controversial 2016 Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act that permits Americans to sue foreign governments, particularly that of Saudi Arabia, and officials over alleged responsibility for terrorist acts. China has already expressed a willingness to intensify military ties and defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including signing a five-year plan for Saudi-Chinese security cooperation and joint military drills.

Second, Saudi Arabia will be making the case that it, and not Iran, is China’s optimal partner in the Gulf region. Given China’s long-standing close relations with Iran, this will be a tall order, and it’s likely that Saudi Arabia doesn’t believe that Beijing can be truly separated from Tehran in any decisive sense, at least not yet. But the Saudis will be trying to emphasize what they can offer to China in the region. To that end they will primarily point to the U.S. Commerce Department’s imposition of a $1.19 billion fine against China’s largest telecom equipment manufacturer, ZTE, for violating sanctions against Iran and North Korea, and another U.S. investigation of a second Chinese telecom producer, as evidence of the risks of betting too much on Iran when Tehran is subject to major international sanctions because of its destabilizing activities in the Middle East. China has maintained some distance from Iran recently, most notably by rejecting Tehran’s bid to join the Beijing-led multilateral security group, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in June 2016.

The Saudis will make the case that China ultimately benefits from stability in Southwest Asia, and in global trade and oil markets, and strongly argue that Riyadh, not Tehran, pursues policies that promote these Chinese goals. They will add that they can be helpful in China’s relations with Pakistan, and its goals in Afghanistan and other parts of Central Asia, and in containing the threat from radical Islamists among China’s own Uyghur population. James Dorsey argues that Iran, ultimately, has much more to offer China’s policy goals, particularly its infrastructure project in Eurasia, than Saudi Arabia. However, if its Middle East regional ambitions remain largely commercial, or even, like Russia’s, strategic but limited, Beijing could end up with strong relations with both Riyadh and Tehran. The first meeting in Beijing in August 2016 of a senior-level Saudi-Chinese Joint Committee to enhance bilateral cooperation in a range of sectors, co-chaired by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, set the stage for close ties and will be a key basis for progress during the king’s visit.

China may not have to choose the way a strictly Middle Eastern power, or the pre-eminent global power, the United States, must between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It can, in effect, have both. And since Iran already has close ties to China, Saudi Arabia would be adding itself to the mix, even if it cannot subtract Iran. This would certainly be a gain for Riyadh, if not a loss for Tehran. Moreover, the Saudis understand that wooing China away from Iran is, perforce, a long-term prospect, and therefore this trip is framed as an important step in the right direction (assuming it goes well).

Third, China is a major market for Saudi energy exports, and commercial ties and investments will be an important feature of every stop on the king’s Asian tour. In China there are the added military and strategic dimensions that feature more strongly in that leg of the trip than others, many of which are largely economic, commercial, diplomatic, and cultural.

King Salman’s visit to Beijing is in many ways the most complex, and potentially meaningful, part of the whole trip. If it is as successful as Saudis hope, it could prove historic. But even if it doesn’t meet those ambitious goals, it could still be an important milestone in Saudi outreach to China and the rest of East Asia.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Hussein Ibish

Senior Resident Scholar, AGSI

Analysis

Iran Takes a Huge Hit but Isn’t Doomed or Out of Options

President Trump's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may or may not have irreparably damaged them, but the Al Udeid strike suggests Tehran is seeking to avoid a prolonged conflict with Washington.

Hussein Ibish

8 min read

President Donald J. Trump holds a meeting with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, and other cabinet members in the Situation Room at the White House in Washington, DC, June 21. (The White House/Handout via REUTERS)

Is Trump Embracing a Regime Change Policy?

President Trump may be on the brink of getting the United States drawn into another "forever war," this time against Iran.

Hussein Ibish

12 min read

President Donald J. Trump speaks with reporters while flying aboard Air Force One en route from Calgary, Canada to Joint Base Andrews, Md., June 16. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
View All

Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

May 15, 2025

Will Trump’s Visit Mark a New Chapter in U.S.-Saudi Relations?

On May 15, AGSI hosted a discussion on Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. President Donald J. Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. President Donald J. Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS)

Feb 4, 2025

After Assad: What’s Next for Syria and the Region?

On February 4, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the collapse of the Assad regime and the future of Syria.

Syria's de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa attends a meeting with former rebel faction chiefs in Damascus, Syria, in this handout image released December 24, 2024. (SANA/Handout via REUTERS)
Syria's de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa attends a meeting with former rebel faction chiefs in Damascus, Syria, in this handout image released December 24, 2024. (SANA/Handout via REUTERS)
View All