"*" indicates required fields

Subscribe

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Why a Clinton Presidency Could be Good for the Gulf

In these pages last month, I outlined a number of reasons why the Gulf states should be cautiously optimistic about US foreign policy in a Hillary Clinton administration, given that the Democratic nominee is extremely likely to become the next president. But there are several additional factors, both positive and negative from a Gulf perspective,...

Hussein Ibish

4 min read

U.S. Democratic Nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (Gage Skidmore)

In these pages last month, I outlined a number of reasons why the Gulf states should be cautiously optimistic about US foreign policy in a Hillary Clinton administration, given that the Democratic nominee is extremely likely to become the next president. But there are several additional factors, both positive and negative from a Gulf perspective, worth elucidating.

In addition to reaffirming shaken American alliances in Europe and the Middle East, Mrs Clinton is likely to move quickly to bolster America’s global economic stature. Her foreign policy team views domestic economic initiatives, for example on infrastructure and investment stimulus, as crucial to restoring confidence in American leadership, particularly in Europe.

Gulf investment in the United States is significant and growing. Mrs Clinton’s team is likely to work with Congressional leaders, possibly in coordination with Barack Obama before he leaves office, to create a legislative “fix” for the recently passed Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (Jasta). The law is designed to allow the families of Americans killed in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks to sue Saudi Arabia and its officials for alleged complicity (for which there is no evidence) in the attacks.

Correcting Jasta is important to protect American interests and to prevent an exodus of Saudi and other Gulf investments in the United States. It’s also crucial to restoring confidence and trust to this vital relationship.

Rectifying the Jasta blunder by Congress will be a crucial early test for a president-elect Clinton and a late test for the outgoing Mr Obama.

Mrs Clinton will also seek to demonstrate that she will be more assertive, and in the phrase being promoted by her campaign, “muscular,” in defending American interests than Mr Obama, including through a greater willingness to use military force if need be.

This means she will probably look for an early opportunity to confront Russian president Vladimir Putin, take a tougher line with Iran while continuing to implement the nuclear agreement, and strengthen American engagement in Syria.

Less to the liking of Washington’s Gulf allies will be Mrs Clinton’s probable greater emphasis on human, and especially women’s, rights around the world, including in the Middle East. She has long positioned herself as an international champion of women, and this could be a source of tension, particularly in Washington’s relationship with Riyadh, given that Saudi women still face numerous social restrictions including “guardianship” laws and the prohibition on women driving.

Hacked emails reveal that when she was secretary of state, Mrs Clinton held back from promoting the issue of women driving in Saudi Arabia for fear that “public comments by me would hurt [this] … cause.” Yet she reportedly raised the question repeatedly in private conversations with senior Saudi officials.

Mrs Clinton is surely pragmatic enough to ensure that disagreements on women’s rights don’t seriously harm US relations with Saudi Arabia. As secretary of state, she pursued what her aides called “quiet diplomacy” on this issue. That may continue to be the fundamental approach she brings to the White House, but it’s hard to imagine that she won’t place a greater emphasis on these concerns than any other recent American president.

Mrs Clinton has long favoured personalised diplomacy based on building a strong rapport with foreign leaders. With his more cerebral and aloof style, Mr Obama has relied on the formal channels and mechanisms of diplomacy, and eschewed close personal relationships.

He has also largely avoided negative ones, even effectively shrugging when Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte publicly called him a “son of a whore”. Only Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to get under Mr Obama’s skin by repeatedly misleading him regarding Israel’s intentions on settlements and blatantly interfering to support Mitt Romney in the 2012 election.

But this is the exception that proves the overall rule that Mr Obama has studiously avoided making personalities a factor in his diplomatic approach.

Mrs Clinton is unlikely to reprise George W Bush’s overemphasis on interpersonal relations and gut reactions. But her tenure as secretary of state suggests she will reintroduce personal relationships as an important element of American diplomacy. The visceral mutual animosity with Mr Putin is already well-established.

Gulf leaders have traditionally also favoured intimate personal relationships as a foundation, along with the core realities of national interest, of international cooperation. Mrs Clinton will almost certainly give them an opportunity to utilise these skills, following eight years of chilly unresponsiveness from Mr Obama.

Such strong personal relationships – along with an improved policy environment on issues regarding Iran, Syria and Russia – can help ensure that if and when Mrs Clinton voices criticism about human and women’s rights, Gulf leaders know they are listening to a trustworthy friend and not an unreliable or unfair critic.

This article was originally published by The National.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Hussein Ibish

Senior Resident Scholar, AGSI

Analysis

It’s Official: Trump and the Gulf Arab Countries Deeply Love Each Other

It was win-win-win-win without any apparent pitfalls in Trump's three-day tour of the Gulf.

Hussein Ibish

12 min read

President Donald J. Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman walk during an arrival ceremony at the Royal Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 13. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Trump’s Gulf Trip Should Prove a Big Win-Win for All Parties

Gulf Arab states can solidify ties with Washington, while Trump stands to benefit personally and politically.

Hussein Ibish

15 min read

U.S. President Donald J. Trump exits Air Force One upon arriving at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, May 4. (REUTERS/Leah Millis)

What’s Behind the Arab Alternative to Trump’s Gaza Proposal

The GCC +2 meeting, followed by the Arab League, has to take Trump's dangerously implausible ideas about Gaza seriously, but Israel won't countenance the Arab states’ alternative.

Hussein Ibish

9 min read

Palestinians walk in the destruction caused by the Israeli air and ground offensive in Jabaliya, Gaza Strip, February 11. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

Qatar’s Adroit Post-October 7 Diplomacy

Qatar appears to have turned a serious potential liability, its long-standing support for Hamas, into diplomatic advantage.

Hussein Ibish

7 min read

Smoke rises in North Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, January 14. (REUTERS/Amir Cohen)
View All

Events

May 15, 2025

Will Trump’s Visit Mark a New Chapter in U.S.-Saudi Relations?

On May 15, AGSI hosted a discussion on Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. President Donald J. Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. President Donald J. Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS)

Feb 4, 2025

After Assad: What’s Next for Syria and the Region?

On February 4, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the collapse of the Assad regime and the future of Syria.

Syria's de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa attends a meeting with former rebel faction chiefs in Damascus, Syria, in this handout image released December 24, 2024. (SANA/Handout via REUTERS)
Syria's de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa attends a meeting with former rebel faction chiefs in Damascus, Syria, in this handout image released December 24, 2024. (SANA/Handout via REUTERS)

Dec 10, 2024

How Will Gulf Partners Seek to Manage Relations With Trump 2.0?

On December 10, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the future U.S.-Gulf relations under the incoming Trump administration.

Then-President Donald J. Trump holds a sword and sways with traditional dancers during a welcome ceremony at Murabba Palace, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Then-President Donald J. Trump holds a sword and sways with traditional dancers during a welcome ceremony at Murabba Palace, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Oct 9, 2024

Will the 2024 U.S. Election Prove an Inflection Point for Middle East Policy?

On October 9, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the U.S. presidential election and what it means for U.S.-Middle East policy.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald J. Trump gestures as he speaks as Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris listens during a presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, September 10. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald J. Trump gestures as he speaks as Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris listens during a presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, September 10. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)
View All