The Regime is Unpopular and the IRGC Knows It

No man delights in the bearer of bad news, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership appears perfectly capable of processing unpleasant intelligence concerning the regime’s declining popularity. So much is clear after BBC Persian released a classified Fars News Agency bulletin prepared for IRGC Chief Commander Major General Hossein Salami. The bulletin stands in stark contrast to the sanitized intelligence reports Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi received from his subordinates in the 1970s. Fearing the wrath of the absolute monarch, Iran’s intelligence services reported what it thought he wanted to hear, rather than what he needed to know, which in turn explains the regime’s unpreparedness to counter the 1979 revolution. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei too appears unwilling to hear the truth, which, at least in part, may explain why the author of the bulletin was arrested. 

It remains to be seen if the Islamic Republic will fare better than the Pahlavi monarchy, but to judge by the bulletin, the IRGC appears to be in a position to make better informed decisions than the shah and the ayatollah.  

• November 30: A Fars News Agency classified bulletin, released by BBC Persian, had two main sections: Reports concerning Khamenei’s statements in closed settings and domestic political news. In the latter, referring to opinion polls conducted by the Interior Ministry, the bulletin reported “56.3 percent of the people believe protests will continue with no end in sight. Thirty-four percent expect the protests to end within the next couple of weeks.” Turning to the separatist threat and the risk or dissolution of Iran, the poll showed “48 percent have absolutely no such concern or little concerned, while 43 percent are greatly concerned about it.” More controversial, the poll demonstrated “84 percent of the people perceive street protests as a way of solving the problems,” and “70 percent of the people have no inclination to go to the streets in support of the regime and the revolution.” Just as controversial, “51 percent of the people believe the hijab must be voluntary, while 36.8% insist on mandatory hijab.” 
• December 5: According to Entekhab News Agency, the author of the bulletin was arrested by Iranian authorities on charges of spreading false news. 
• December 6: BBC Persian identified Abbas Darvish Tavangar, who previously served as chief editor at the Fars and Tasnim news agencies of the IRGC, as the author of the bulletin. 
• December 7: Hojjat al-Islam Hossein Taeb, advisor to the IRGC chief commander, and former IRGC Intelligence Organization chief, quoted by Entekhab News Agency delivering a speech in Zanjan, claimed “this brother had been warned on several occasions before, and the warnings even involved the law. One thing is reporting the news, another thing is writing free essays. He wrote news-based essays. It was not that he was reflecting the news, no, he heard something, and wrote essays based on hearsay. This is what he did. And he was warned, and as far as I know, but I may be wrong, his last position was not deputy editor at Fars News, as he had been removed. He was not tasked with producing bulletins but compiled things based on the general news and sold it to different organizations.” 

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