"*" indicates required fields

Subscribe

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

The Regime is Unpopular and the IRGC Knows It

The December 16 edition of the Iran Media Review considers the implications of the release of a classified bulletin concerning the Iranian regime’s declining popularity.

Ali Alfoneh

8 min read

No man delights in the bearer of bad news, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership appears perfectly capable of processing unpleasant intelligence concerning the regime’s declining popularity. So much is clear after BBC Persian released a classified Fars News Agency bulletin prepared for IRGC Chief Commander Major General Hossein Salami. The bulletin stands in stark contrast to the sanitized intelligence reports Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi received from his subordinates in the 1970s. Fearing the wrath of the absolute monarch, Iran’s intelligence services reported what it thought he wanted to hear, rather than what he needed to know, which in turn explains the regime’s unpreparedness to counter the 1979 revolution. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei too appears unwilling to hear the truth, which, at least in part, may explain why the author of the bulletin was arrested. 

It remains to be seen if the Islamic Republic will fare better than the Pahlavi monarchy, but to judge by the bulletin, the IRGC appears to be in a position to make better informed decisions than the shah and the ayatollah.  

  • November 30: A Fars News Agency classified bulletin, released by BBC Persian, had two main sections: Reports concerning Khamenei’s statements in closed settings and domestic political news. In the latter, referring to opinion polls conducted by the Interior Ministry, the bulletin reported “56.3 percent of the people believe protests will continue with no end in sight. Thirty-four percent expect the protests to end within the next couple of weeks.” Turning to the separatist threat and the risk or dissolution of Iran, the poll showed “48 percent have absolutely no such concern or little concerned, while 43 percent are greatly concerned about it.” More controversial, the poll demonstrated “84 percent of the people perceive street protests as a way of solving the problems,” and “70 percent of the people have no inclination to go to the streets in support of the regime and the revolution.” Just as controversial, “51 percent of the people believe the hijab must be voluntary, while 36.8% insist on mandatory hijab.” 
  • December 5: According to Entekhab News Agency, the author of the bulletin was arrested by Iranian authorities on charges of spreading false news. 
  • December 6: BBC Persian identified Abbas Darvish Tavangar, who previously served as chief editor at the Fars and Tasnim news agencies of the IRGC, as the author of the bulletin. 
  • December 7: Hojjat al-Islam Hossein Taeb, advisor to the IRGC chief commander, and former IRGC Intelligence Organization chief, quoted by Entekhab News Agency delivering a speech in Zanjan, claimed “this brother had been warned on several occasions before, and the warnings even involved the law. One thing is reporting the news, another thing is writing free essays. He wrote news-based essays. It was not that he was reflecting the news, no, he heard something, and wrote essays based on hearsay. This is what he did. And he was warned, and as far as I know, but I may be wrong, his last position was not deputy editor at Fars News, as he had been removed. He was not tasked with producing bulletins but compiled things based on the general news and sold it to different organizations.” 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?

U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
View All

Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
View All