"*" indicates required fields

Subscribe

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Retaliation: Lessons From Greek-Iranian Naval Incidents

In the inaugural, July 6 edition of the Iran Media Review, Ali Alfoneh considers the Islamic Republic of Iran’s logic of power and disproportionate retaliation.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

Two and half millennia since the Battle of Salamis, Iran and Greece once again found themselves entangled in naval incidents, from which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has learned the inefficient lesson of responding in kind. On April 15, Greece’s coast guard seized Lana, a Russian flagged and operated crude oil tanker in the Aegean Sea, citing violations of international sanctions imposed against Russia. At the time, Greek authorities emphasized the seizure order concerned the ship itself and not its cargo. However, by May 26, following a “judicial intervention by U.S. authorities concerning the ship’s cargo,” crude oil was confiscated by the U.S. government as a part of U.S. sanctions against Iran. The IRGC retaliated on May 27 by seizing two Greek oil tankers off the coast of Iran. And, on June 9, Ahmed Naderi, Iran’s ambassador to Athens, tweeted that a Greek court of appeals had overturned the Greeks’ original seizure of the oil, and the Associated Press confirmed the story.

  • June 14: Mohammad-Javan Akhavan, Javan newspaper executive director, in an overview of the affair wrote in an editorial: “As predicted, when the Islamic Republic of Iran retaliated beyond proportion, the logic of power cleared the path of release of the property of the Iranian nation unjustly looted in Greece … It appears such retaliation, which at times punitively exceeds the enemy’s initial act, has to some extent proved its efficacy and can impact international and regional power equations.” Addressing the West, he concluded: “Take a look at the oil market: If we are not allowed to sell oil, you may not be able to purchase oil from your regional vassals.”

Javan often serves as the mouthpiece of the IRGC, so the editorial should be taken seriously as reflecting the dominant view among the IRGC leadership. But while the logic of retaliation as deterrence may be valid, there is also an alternative lesson that the IRGC leadership ought to have learned from the affair: the logic of a rational resolution of the crisis over Iran’s nuclear program, which caused the U.S. sanctions regime against Iran in the first place.

AGSIW’s Iran Media Review monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?

U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
View All

Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
View All