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Analysis

Renewed Trump Optimism in Tehran

The February 4 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights remarks by Iranian officials and commentary from political analysts showing an Iranian interest in negotiations with the United States.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is laying the groundwork for a new round of nuclear negotiations with the United States, and Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is signaling a willingness to offer nuclear-related concessions in exchange for sanctions relief. Meanwhile, Iranian political analysts view President Donald J. Trump’s psychology and Republican control over the executive and legislative branches as strategic levers to circumvent opposition from U.S. allies critical of Iran and to secure a durable bilateral agreement with Washington. 

  • January 31: In an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic cited by centrist Asr-e Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was asked about the substantive framework of potential negotiations between Iran and the United States. Araghchi responded:  
    • “Last time we negotiated with the Americans, the EU Three, China, and Russia within the framework of the P5+1, we determined that discussions should be confined strictly to the nuclear dossier. This was the correct approach. Had we incorporated additional issues, the negotiations would have been prolonged, and the likelihood of reaching a resolution would have diminished … However, if the upcoming negotiations proceed favorably, we can consider advancing discussions to additional matters.” 
  • February 1: Ali Larijani, an advisor to the supreme leader, speaking on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting’s “Between the Headlines,” as quoted by the reformist Entekhab News Agency, asserted: 
    • “Nuclear advancements constitute merely one dimension of our national development; they do not encompass the entirety of our progress … I was personally involved in the nuclear negotiations, and there must be defined parameters … The nuclear file represents only a fraction of our national capabilities and should not be perceived as all encompassing. The people must be able to sustain their livelihoods, and development must be pursued across multiple sectors.” 
    • “The nuclear agreement preserved our technological expertise, though it necessitated a reduction in operational centrifuges from 9,000 to 5,000. In return, avenues opened for advancement in other domains, which was of critical importance to us. This is precisely why the Zionist regime opposed the agreement and lobbied Trump to withdraw from it.” 
  • February 2: The reformist Etemad newspaper featured an interview with two foreign policy analysts assessing the prospects of Iranian-U.S. negotiations under Trump: 
    • Former diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi said that, under Trump, the United States will not favor protracted diplomatic engagements between Iranian and U.S. negotiators, as such negotiations “may sideline him.” He continued that “Trump seeks to maintain a central role, and the performative aspect of diplomacy is highly significant to him … Substantively, the nuclear issue will remain the focal point of the negotiations, while regional security concerns and Iran’s missile program may not be as immediate priorities for him. Western actors, including Israel, assess that Iran’s regional influence has been curtailed due to the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah as well as the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria … The alignment of the White House and Congress under Republican control presents an unprecedented geopolitical opening. Under these circumstances, Israel and Arab states lack the capacity to sabotage or obstruct the path toward a U.S.-Iran agreement.” 
    • Academic Hassan Beheshtipour said: “Negotiations with Washington are imperative … even if they do not culminate in an agreement … We must communicate to the public that diplomatic engagement remains the only viable mechanism to achieve sanctions relief.” 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary

An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, greets journalists upon his arrival to meet with the Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis

Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet in Tehran, Iran, August 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)

Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict

Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian attend an endorsement ceremony in Tehran, Iran, July 28, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)
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Events

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
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