“Nothing Is Bleaker Than the Color Black”

Iran’s hard-line, technocratic, and even reformist factions appear to be in agreement: Following the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Israeli strikes against Iran, and subsequent U.S. military attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Tehran should not be deterred by European threats to invoke the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism. This provision empowers any United Nations Security Council participant to unilaterally restore all previously lifted U.N. sanctions on Iran, bypassing veto constraints, if the country is deemed uncompliant with its JCPOA obligations. Previously, Iranian technocrats and reformists warned that referring Iran’s nuclear dossier back to the Security Council would entail considerable economic consequences and could pave the way for a military confrontation reminiscent of the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War. Today, however, their strategic calculus has shifted: European signatories to the JCPOA proved either unwilling or unable to shield Iran from the reimposition of U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, and Iran has already endured military aggression. How much worse can it get? 

• July 14: In a front-page article, hard-line Kayhan called on Iranian policymakers to initiate preparations for withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in response to Europe’s invocation of the snapback mechanism: 

• • While former Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif and “other people from the president’s circle claimed diplomatic stratagems would remove the shadow of war, this country was attacked by the Zionists and the Americans after two months of negotiations … Europe, too, is pursuing the betrayal of Iran by threatening to activate the snapback mechanism … It is now incumbent on the Foreign Ministry not to be deceived … The sanctioning power of the snapback mechanism is not stronger than the present U.S. sanctions, and its potential to pave the path for another war is also limited, as Israel and the United States hardly needed” a Security Council resolution or a snapback mechanism to attack Iran. 

• • Confronting the emerging threats, Kayhan further urged decision makers to “prepare the ground to leave the nonproliferation treaty in case the European countries activate the snapback mechanism … Although diplomacy is an important instrument for this country, there is no logical reason for continued negotiations and diplomacy under circumstances where the other party is seeking increased pressure on us rather than solving the issues.” 

• July 14: Reformist Etemad featured a front-page article, co-authored by former diplomats Cyrus Nasseri and Nosratollah Tajik, advocating for Russian and Chinese withdrawal from the JCPOA: 

• • “Iran renouncing the JCPOA will have little to no influence on the snapback mechanism, but should Russia, China, or both, renounce it, a small window opens to a legal-political prevention of the snapback mechanism. This requires that the two countries declare they renounce the JCPOA and use their vote in the Security Council to veto reimposition of previous sanctions against Iran.” 

• July 14: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-aligned Javan dismissed the European Union as a “defanged wolf” and downplayed its threat to trigger the snapback mechanism as strategically inconsequential. 

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