Iran Uses Threats of Intervention to Complicate Israeli Calculations

Absent physical signs of war preparations and troop movements, it is difficult to imagine that Iran intends to voluntarily and directly entangle itself in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Yet Iran’s state-censored media has propagated the probability of such involvement, likely hoping to complicate Israel’s calculations. Ismail Qaani, commander of the expeditionary Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, may have set up a war headquarters in Syria, and Iran’s foreign minister warned that “all fingers are on the trigger.” But revealingly, Iran’s mission to the United Nations emphasized Iran will not get militarily involved in the conflict unless attacked.

• October 10: Centrist Vatan-e Emrooz sarcastically wondered why foreign Persian-language television channels, such as BBC Persian and Iran International, which have long looked down on Qaani, now admit he “feels empowered.”
• October 15: Nour News, the official mouthpiece of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned: “Should Israel, due to the complex circumstances it finds itself in, voluntarily enter Gazan territory, it will be walking into a trap, and a second surprise may await the helpless and disorganized Zionist regime.”
• October 15: Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who recently returned from visits to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Qatar, said, according to IRGC mouthpiece Mashregh News: “The visit to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Qatar served two purposes. First, to meet with the leaders of the resistance and receive precise reports from the field of the resistance countering the war crimes of the Zionist regime. Next, it served the purpose of consulting with political leaders in the region to find a fast political solution to stop the war crimes and break the encirclement” of Gaza by the Israel Defense Forces. Amir-Abdollahian continued: “We bluntly told all parties that if the crimes and massacres of women and children do not immediately cease, all fingers are on the trigger, and the situation in the region is explosive and may no longer be controlled … During these meetings, the American party was warned that you cannot on the one hand urge the resistance and other countries to show restraint and not expand the war but on the other hand declare full support for the imploded Zionist regime … The United States and the Zionist regime are to blame should the war expand to other parties.”
• October 15: Hassan Fazl-Allah, a Lebanese parliamentarian and supporter of Lebanese Hezbollah, said, as quoted by IRGC mouthpiece Tasnim News: “We are ready for any eventuality and all options are on the table, but we do not want to disclose our next moves. This is part of the struggle!”
• October 15: Javan newspaper, an IRGC mouthpiece, emphasized that Iran has signaled to Israel and the United States that it “will not remain on the side” should Israel launch a ground invasion of Gaza.
• October 15: Cutting in the opposite direction of nearly all other Iranian media statements, Iran’s mission to the U.N., in a statement published by the Islamic Republic News Agency, declared: “Iran’s armed forces will not engage” in Gaza, “provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals.”
• October 16: Technocratic Donya-ye Eqtesad, quoting a post on X (formerly known as Twitter) by Middle East expert Mostafa Najafi that has since been deleted, wrote: “Commander Ismail Qaani, Quds Force chief, is in Syria, and all resistance forces are in a state of alert. Three days ago, he met with the commanders of several Iraqi militias, and force movement logistics have been prepared. A joint operations headquarters in Syria is monitoring all developments and is ready to execute Qaani’s orders.”

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