Tim Callen is a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Callen is a former assistant director in the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund. He served as the IMF’s mission chief for Saudi Arabia and as the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ division from 2012-21. He was responsible for the IMF’s engagement with the government of Saudi Arabia and for the institution’s research and publications on the country. He also led the IMF’s research program on the GCC region. From 2021-22, he served as special advisor to the executive director for Saudi Arabia at the IMF’s Executive Board. Callen’s research interests focus on oil exporting countries and include prospects and policies for economic diversification away from oil, frameworks and institutions to limit procyclical fiscal policy, and appropriate exchange rate policies. Callen joined the IMF in 1993 and also worked in the Asia and Pacific, Communications, and Research departments. Before joining the IMF, he worked in the Economic Departments at the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia and at Hambros Bank. He holds a bachelor’s in economics from the University of Essex and a master’s in economics from the University of Warwick.
Analysis
The Trump Presidency, Iran War, and U.S.-Gulf Economic Relationship
The outbreak of the Iran war has halted the deepening of the economic relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries. While likely temporary, it could take some time before the upward trajectory is restored.
Have Saudi Labor Market Reforms Run Their Course?
Recent data suggests that the positive impact of a decade of reforms to improve Saudi labor market outcomes may now be waning.
Saudi Arabia Weathers the Iran War Thanks to Investments in “Economic Resiliency”
The impact of the Iran war on the Saudi economy has been mitigated by investments in “economic resiliency,” including the East-West oil pipeline, relatively prudent fiscal policy, and the accumulation of a large stock of foreign financial assets.
Saudi Economic Outlook Positive If U.S.-Iran Deal Holds
If the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran holds, the Saudi economy will grow strongly in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
The Impact of the Iran War on the Saudi Economy
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has led to slower economic growth and disrupted trade in Saudi Arabia, but to date inflation has been unaffected.
Iran War Hits Business Conditions in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
March readings of the purchasing managers’ index showed a substantial deterioration in business conditions in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf.
Events
Mar 11, 2026
Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy
On March 11, AGSI hosted a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Dec 15, 2025
Looking to 2026: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges in the GCC
On December 15, AGSI hosted a discussion on the future of Gulf economies.
Speakers
Sep 4, 2025
Saudi Arabia: Sustaining Strong Growth Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
On September 4, AGSI hosted a discussion on the International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Article IV report on Saudi Arabia.
Speakers
Jul 22, 2025
Gulf Economic Outlook: The Role of Fiscal Policy in Navigating Gulf Countries Through Global Economic Uncertainty
On July 22, AGSI and the World Bank co-hosted a discussion on the "Gulf Economic Update" report.
Speakers
May 27, 2025
Saudi Arabia’s Sports Ambitions: Diversification and Sustainability?
On May 27, AGSI hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia's investment in sports.
Speakers
Saudi Economic Spotlight
Jul 31, 2026
Data Confirms a Large Economic Contraction in Saudi Arabia in the Second Quarter
The Saudi economy contracted sharply in the second quarter of 2026. Any recovery will be slowed by the recent renewal of hostilities in the region.
May 6, 2026
Spending Surge Puts Saudi Budget in Large First Quarter Deficit
The Saudi budget recorded a large deficit in the first quarter of 2026 as spending surged, but higher oil revenue during the rest of the year should limit the size of the annual fiscal deficit.
May 5, 2026
Gulf PMIs Raise Specter of Stagflation
Business conditions in the Gulf generally improved in April, but they remained weaker than before the Iran war. There are signs that price pressures are increasing as the conflict impedes trade.
The Iran War and the Saudi Economy
Data shows that the Saudi economy is being negatively affected by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and the impact will likely continue for the next few months at least.
Apr 2, 2026
Saudi Equities Outperform Global Markets
Saudi equity prices have risen since the start of the Iran conflict, outperforming many regional and global markets. Whether this continues will depend on how and when the conflict ends.
The Saudi Fiscal Deficit in 2025 Was Larger Than Expected
The 2025 budget deficit was larger than expected. The 2026 deficit is also likely to exceed the budget target, but higher oil prices may help contain any overrun.
External Publications
“The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century
Ben Ltaifa, N., and T. Callen, 2024, “The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century (editor: John Sfakianakis), Oxford University Press.
“The Global Economy and the GCC,” in The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty
Bibolov A., T. Callen, and T. Zhang, 2023, “The Global Economy and the GCC,” in The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty, Brookings Institution Press.
Gulf Economies Need a Transformed Role for the State
Callen, T. and A. Hamaizia, 2021, “Gulf Economies Need a Transformed Role for the State,” Chatham House Expert Comment (republished in Arab Digest).
Non-Oil Revenue Reforms—An Initial Assessment of the Fiscal and Economic Impact
Alrashidi, A., T. Callen, and C. Jenkins, 2019, “Non-Oil Revenue Reforms—An Initial Assessment of the Fiscal and Economic Impact,” Saudi Arabia—Selected Issues Papers, International Monetary Fund
“Introductory Remarks” in Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification
Callen, T., R. Cherif, and F. Hasanov, 2016, “Introductory Remarks” in Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification, International Monetary Fund.
Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Growth
Al-Darwish, A., N. Alghaith, A. Behar, T. Callen, P. Deb, A. Hegazy, P. Khandelwal, M. Pant, and H. Qu, 2015, Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Growth, IMF Department Paper (Washington D.C.)
Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future
Callen, T., R. Cherif, F. Hasanov, A. Hegazy, and P. Khandelwal, 2014, Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future, IMF Staff Discussion Note 14/12 (Washington D.C.)
