Ties that Bind or Blind? Iranian – U.S. Rapprochement and its Effect on GCC Threat Perception
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement. It is not necessarily a signal that Iran is opening politically, nor does it indicate that the U.S. has forgotten Iran’s history of supporting terrorist groups. There is a growing suspicion among Arab Gulf states,...
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement. It is not necessarily a signal that Iran is opening politically, nor does it indicate that the U.S. has forgotten Iran’s history of supporting terrorist groups. There is a growing suspicion among Arab Gulf states, however, that the U.S. is pursuing a managed diplomatic opening with Iran that will begin with the nuclear issue and spread to commercial and political ties. Iran’s efforts to engage diplomatically with its Gulf neighbors in July of 2015, specifically with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit to Kuwait, demonstrated the tension in changing regional dynamics. In fact, the commercial rapprochement with Iran is a fait accompli, as the international will to continue economic sanctions has withered. The lifting of most economic sanctions on Iran has cemented the Gulf Arab states’ perception that the U.S. is less engaged with its Sunni Arab allies, thus exposing them to more risk from an emboldened Iran.
The blockade, artfully deployed, and a focus on coalition building, international law, and interests-based negotiations can help the United States and its Gulf allies extricate themselves from the current impasse.
As Iranian drones and missiles have rained down on the Gulf, the targeted states have found unexpected allies globally but little support from their Arab neighbors.
AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.
The conflict in Yemen has exacted a disastrous toll on the country. This paper considers the outside forces in the conflict, seeking to elucidate who they are, what the nature is of their involvement, and what their converging and conflicting interests mean for reconstruction.
This post is part of an AGSIW series on Saudi Vision 2030, a sweeping set of programs and reforms adopted by the Saudi government to be implemented by 2030. Saudi Arabia did one thing right this week. It is seeing some positive news in the return on investment in its outwardly placed capital in new technology....
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement. It is not necessarily a signal that Iran is opening politically, nor does it indicate that the U.S. has forgotten Iran’s history of supporting terrorist groups. There is a growing suspicion among Arab Gulf states, however, that the U.S. is pursuing a managed diplomatic opening with Iran that will begin with the nuclear issue and spread to commercial and political ties. Iran’s efforts to engage diplomatically with its Gulf neighbors in July of 2015, specifically with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit to Kuwait, demonstrated the tension in changing regional dynamics. In fact, the commercial rapprochement with Iran is a fait accompli, as the international will to continue economic sanctions has withered. The lifting of most economic sanctions on Iran has cemented the Gulf Arab states’ perception that the U.S. is less engaged with its Sunni Arab allies, thus exposing them to more risk from an emboldened Iran.
Jan 26, 2016
Ties that Bind or Blind? Iranian – U.S. Rapprochement and its Effect on GCC Threat Perception
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement. It is not necessarily a signal that Iran is opening politically, nor does it indicate that the U.S. has forgotten Iran’s history of supporting terrorist groups. There is a growing suspicion among Arab Gulf states,...
1 min read