Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSIW’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Supreme Oscillation: Khamenei’s Trump Strategy
Iran’s supreme leader is facing a strategic dilemma in how to pursue diplomacy with the United States and project strength amid internal fracturing and ambiguity.
Iran Meets Elon
While any U.S.-Iran rapprochement could potentially ease sanctions on Iran, such a shift is poised to generate sharply divergent responses among U.S. allies.
Uncertain: Iran Policies of U.S. Presidential Candidates
Regardless of who prevails in November's presidential election, the next U.S. administration may contend with either a nuclear-armed or fragmented Iran.
Iran After the Lebanon Debacle: Suppress Domestic Dissent and Dash for the Bomb?
Undeterred by the politically and militarily decapitated Hezbollah, Israel is free to target critical components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and Iran's perceived weakness may fuel domestic opposition.
Pezeshkian’s Proposed Cabinet: The Art of the Possible
The Cabinet picks of Iran’s new president, largely technocrats, reflects Pezeshkian’s preference for consensus and continuity of former President Hassan Rouhani's foreign and economic policies.
Pezeshkian’s Presidency: Covenant and Crisis?
President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian has a popular mandate to pursue domestic reforms and rebalance Iran’s foreign policy, but he is likely to face opposition from powerful forces at home and abroad.
Events
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Jan 9, 2024
2024 Outlook
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Oct 12, 2023
Will the Israel-Hamas Conflict Spell the End of Regional Reconciliation?
On October 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Speakers
Feb 14, 2023
Iranian Protests and Tehran’s Regional Role
On February 14, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's regional relationships amid ongoing protests.
Speakers
Sep 22, 2022
Succession in Iran: Who Will Be the Next Supreme Leader?
On September 22, AGSIW hosted a discussion on political succession in Iran.
Speakers
