Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?
U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.
Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts
AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.
34 min read
A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf
AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.
20 min read
Supreme Oscillation: Khamenei’s Trump Strategy
Iran’s supreme leader is facing a strategic dilemma in how to pursue diplomacy with the United States and project strength amid internal fracturing and ambiguity.
Iran Meets Elon
While any U.S.-Iran rapprochement could potentially ease sanctions on Iran, such a shift is poised to generate sharply divergent responses among U.S. allies.
Events
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Jan 9, 2024
2024 Outlook
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Oct 12, 2023
Will the Israel-Hamas Conflict Spell the End of Regional Reconciliation?
On October 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Jun 24, 2025
Cease-Fire
The June 24 edition of the Iran Media Review evaluates Iranian media comments in the wake of Iran’s fragile cease-fire with Israel and the United States.
Jun 20, 2025
Iran: Spy Scare and Fear of Treason
The June 20 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian commentary on the regime’s vulnerability to internal espionage and subversion.
Jun 17, 2025
Iran Warns of the Spread of War to the Region
The June 17 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian comments warning of the spread of the Iran-Israel conflict to the rest of the Gulf.
Jun 13, 2025
Iran: Unprepared, Defenseless, and Under Attack
The June 13 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian responses to widespread Israeli attacks on IRGC leaders, Iranian scientists, and multiple nuclear facilities.
Jun 10, 2025
Spy War: Iran vs. Israel
The June 10 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian media reports about stolen Israeli nuclear documents and Israeli sabotage of Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Jun 6, 2025
Supreme Displeasure
The June 6 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights comments by Ayatollah Khamenei expressing anger with U.S. negotiation messaging.
