Presidential Memorandum: Trump Regrets, Tehran Rejoices

AGSIW experts explain the regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.

By the time President Donald J. Trump signed the presidential memorandum reimposing “maximum pressure” on Iran – and his later joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4 – Iranian newspapers had already gone to print. However, this is not the sole factor explaining the relative silence of Iranian officials and Iran’s state-censored media. Other variables may include Tehran’s challenges in deciphering Trump’s explicitly conveyed reluctance in signing the memorandum as well as his reiterated inclination to engage in direct diplomacy with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Nevertheless, the predominant narrative among Iranian media outlets appears to frame these developments as indicative of Trump’s aversion to military escalation with Iran and, potentially, a diminished resolve in enforcing his own administration’s sanctions against the country. 

• February 5: President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed a seminar at the Energy Ministry in remarks covered by Roozno. He seemed to respond to Reuters’ analytical report analyzing potential trajectories of Trump’s Iran policy more than Trump’s press conference announcing the sanctions. He said:  
  • “The U.S. says it will sanction us, but if we manage our natural resources well and engage positively and constructively with our neighbors, how can anyone sanction a country that has 15 friendly neighbors? They think we solely depend on our oil and want to stop its flow, but we and our people have many means to solve our problems, the problems of the people, and have good neighborly relations with fellow Muslims.” 
• February 5: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in his initial response to the presidential memorandum, emphasized the inefficacy of coercive economic measures in remarks quoted by quoted by centrist Akharin News. He said: 
  • “The maximum pressure campaign was a failed policy the repetition of which will bring about another failure … However, if the main issue is Iran not pursuing a nuclear weapon, this is easily conceivable. Iran’s position is well-known: Iran is a member of the Nonproliferation Treaty, and there is also the fatwa of the leader, which has clarified our mission.” 
• February 5: Nour News, which is affiliated with the Supreme National Security Council, erroneously translated “presidential memorandum” into “executive order” in Persian and proceeded under the headline: “Netanyahu Deceived Trump? Why Does America Always Take the Wrong Path?” The report continued:  
  • “Signing the Executive Order, Trump said it had been a difficult decision for him, and he was torn about it. He further said, ‘I hope we will never use it. I am not happy about it.’ These statements of the American president show he was signing because of pressure from Netanyahu and the decision had not been a real strategic decision … For some time, Netanyahu has tried to persuade Trump that Iran is on the verge of implosion, and Trump should take harder positions against Tehran … Once again, Trump has fallen into Netanyahu’s trap and engaged in futile work.”  
• February 5: The Mashregh News Telegram channel, which is aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, disseminated a Persian translation of Trump’s Truth Social post in which he wrote he wants “Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED. I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement.” 
• February 6: Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref responded to Trump’s stated willingness to meet with Pezeshkian and was quoted by reformist newspaper Arman-e Melli saying: 
  • “Meeting of two human beings is not impossible, but as of today, such a meeting and negotiations are not on the regime’s agenda.” 
• February 6: Iran Newspaper, a mouthpiece of the Cabinet, published an editorial by its chief editor, Hadi Khosrow-Shahin, who wrote: 
  • “Tehran ought to combine the policy of maximum defense with special negotiations … in order not to miss the opportunity to safeguard its national interests.”  
• February 6: The reformist newspaper Etemad quoted geopolitical analyst Abd al-Reza Faraji-Rad’s assessment of the unfolding developments. He stated:  
  • “In my opinion … Trump said he was not in a hurry to enforce the new sanctions. It appears as if he is primarily countering the pressure from the Israeli prime minister to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.” 
• February 6: Reformist Shargh newspaper published analysis of Trump’s press conference by both retired diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi and academic Sadeq Zibakalam: 
  • Ahmadi wrote: “Trump likely aimed to reduce the pressure from Netanyahu for the United States to engage in military action against Iran … Trump is not likely to take military action against Iran unless American or non-American intelligence elements persuade him that Iran is building a nuclear bomb.” 
  • Zibakalam wrote: “Fundamentally, Trump is not seeking a confrontation or war with Iran … Trump did not talk of regime change in Iran and did not support the opposition to the Islamic Republic. Both factors point to the fact that Donald Trump is not seeking an all-out conflict with Iran for the time being.” 
• February 6: Javan newspaper, which is closely linked to the IRGC, published an editorial that was critical of the U.S. president’s press conference and the signing of the presidential memorandum, concluding: 
  • “The United States is desiring something beyond Iran’s capitulation. It desires the fragmentation of Iran. The United States may not have a similar desire when it comes to China or emerging economic powers, the fragmentation of which would directly and adversely affect the United States. Iran, however, is different. Therefore, the path of resistance is the most logical and most beneficial path we can pursue. Those who talk of the hundreds of billions of dollars we are losing every year are not considering the harms stemming from capitulation to the United States.”   
• February 6: In a second commentary on the presidential memorandum, Nour News wrote:  
  • “Although Donald Trump’s latest statements on Iran show signs of flexibility, there is no practical change in Washington’s overall approach to Iran … Once again, Trump declared his readiness to negotiate with Iran, but past experience shows America’s objective is to extract further concessions from Iran and intensify pressure. The White House is also using the negotiation/no negotiation dichotomy to destabilize the atmosphere in Iran.”  

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