Post-Raisi Politics: Elections and Negotiations With the United States

While Iran is preparing for presidential elections, in the wake of the killing of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, the regime continues indirect negotiations with the United States in Oman. These negotiations are more likely to be affected by the outcome of the presidential election in the United States in November than by whoever replaces Raisi.

• May 20: Reformist Shargh Daily published an interview with Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former parliamentary National Security and Foreign Relations Committee chairman, who commented on the latest round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States in Oman:
  • “Since Iran and the United States did not manage to reach detente within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, both countries pursue a policy of preventing the escalation of tensions. Both parties are present in a region entangled in multiple crises … This state of emergency has facilitated the negotiations. Naturally, the negotiations basically serve the purpose of preventing tensions. Separately, both parties give concessions to each other. For example, Iran has to a large extent dialed down actions against U.S. military bases in the region through its proxies and helped reduce the number of operations. The counterpart has given a green light to Iran concerning Iran’s oil exports and to the release of a portion of Iran’s funds, in particular in Iraq. Both parties need this kind of negotiations. First of all, these negotiations are in U.S. interest because Biden is trying to emphasize his strengths in the face of Trump. His economic policies have reached good results, but Trump is trying to exaggerate Biden’s foreign policy weaknesses … This is why Biden is trying to reduce tensions with Iran … and this is why the negotiations are not secret.”
  • Turning to the war in Gaza, Falahatpisheh said: “Iran and the United States are among the few regional players interested in reducing tensions and preventing the spread of the war in Palestine. Other players benefit from continuation of tensions. This is why the two countries, which are the heads of two factions, see common benefit in reducing tensions. For certain, a part of the negotiations … serve the purpose of reducing tensions in the region. Naturally, this will not lead to a lasting solution, since many of the actors in the Palestine issue are pursuing their self-interest without any regard for the people of Palestine.”
• May 20: In accordance with Article 131 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, the supreme leader issued a decree appointing Vice President Mohammad Mokhber acting president and head of the executive branch of government, Nour News, a Supreme National Security Council mouthpiece, reported. Within 50 days, a council composed of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government must arrange for a new president to be elected.
• May 20: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mouthpiece Mashregh News, covering the decisions made at the joint session of the heads of three branches of government, reported: “Presidential elections will be held on June 28 … Registration of candidates will be from May 30 to June 3 … Campaigning is scheduled for June 12 to June 27.”

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