Despite Tactical Victories, Iran Struggles to Restore Deterrence

While Iran’s efforts to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb appear to have yielded tactical gains, and the regime continues to intimidate Arab states, Tehran has yet to reestablish deterrence against its principal adversary, Israel, whose economy has been less affected than those of its Arab neighbors. This helps explain why the regime is now openly claiming that it could acquire a nuclear deterrent within 24 hours. Israel is unlikely to take that claim at face value unless Tehran successfully tests a nuclear device. One conclusion, however, is increasingly difficult to escape: U.S. and Israeli actions appear to have convinced Iran’s leadership that building a nuclear weapon is necessary to ensure the regime’s survival and deter future attacks.

• September 13: Hossein Kanani-Moqaddam, a veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, hard-line political activist, and commentator on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, according to centrist outlet Baztab News, said on a broadcast:
  • “Iran must prepare itself for the possibility of nuclear threats against the country … If the decision changes and the supreme leader grants authorization, Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon within a very short period … If the necessary authorization or fatwa to pursue a nuclear weapon is issued, Iran could acquire such a weapon within 24 hours … Obtaining a nuclear detonator from North Korea would not be difficult.”
• September 13: Gholam-Reza Sadeqian, editor of IRGC mouthpiece Javan, criticized Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s meeting with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, writing:
  • “At the conclusion of the BRICS summit, President Dr. Pezeshkian said, among other things: ‘We had a good discussion with the UAE crown prince and agreed to put the past behind us and build a better future.’ How remarkable! Can a better future really be built by setting the past aside?! You may let it go, but they will not – and they have not.”
  • “We were the target of hostility from the Arabs of the deserts south of the Persian Gulf. We cannot be expected to take the initiative in ‘putting the past behind us.’ Neither politically nor morally can someone harmed by another’s conduct be expected to take the first step. Setting the past aside before the aggressor accepts responsibility for its hostility amounts to disregarding the victim’s rights. If the sheikhs seek lasting reconciliation, they must acknowledge their shameful past. I stress again: We were attacked, but having prevailed in the war, we now hold the upper hand. Our officials’ rhetoric must be strong, assertive, and demanding. It must also be consistent. The president’s rhetoric should convey the same message as that of Messrs. Qalibaf, Rezaei, and Araghchi and several other figures whose statements are heard abroad. They must all speak forcefully and from a position of strength.”
• September 14: IRGC-affiliated Mashregh News covered developments in Yemen:
  • “Over the past three days, the battlefield in Yemen has remained shaped by a wave of advances by Ansar Allah forces. The offensive began several days ago with the capture of the strategic port of Mokha and has now culminated in consolidated control over the western coast and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. These developments, unfolding alongside an intensification of Saudi airstrikes, have redrawn the military landscape in western Yemen.”
  • “Ali Mohammad Rezaei, Iran’s ambassador to Yemen, met with Abdulwahid Abu Ras, Yemen’s deputy foreign minister, and conveyed the Iranian government and people’s congratulations to the Yemeni government and people on the Yemeni armed forces’ recent victories on the western coast … The Iranian ambassador in Sanaa also expressed appreciation for Yemen’s support for Iran and the axis of resistance, stressing that Iran stands alongside the Yemeni government and people in efforts to end the aggression and blockade and achieve peace.”

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