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Analysis

A Weakened Hezbollah Remains Central to Iran’s Security Strategy

The July 28 edition of the Iran Media Review considers an open letter from Iran’s supreme leader to Hezbollah in Lebanon pledging continued support.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Despite the near destruction of Hezbollah as a result of Israel’s September 2024 electronic device attacks and subsequent military campaign – and the group’s inability to contribute meaningfully to Iran’s defense against Israeli and U.S. attacks – Hezbollah remains central to Tehran’s security strategy. This is evident in an open letter Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei wrote to Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem. Iran’s position may reflect less confidence in Hezbollah’s future capabilities than a desire to reassure other Iranian allies that Tehran will not abandon them. At the same time, Iran’s sensitivity regarding Hezbollah provides Israel with a means of sabotaging any potential agreement between Washington and Tehran.

  • July 26: In an open letter to Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem that was released by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Mashregh News, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei wrote:
    • “Now that Lebanon’s Hezbollah, as the vanguard of the jihadist groups, is standing like an impregnable rock against the savage onslaught of the Zionist regime and its supporters, this steadfastness has become an inspiring message to the world’s freedom-loving peoples in their struggle to liberate themselves from the oppression and tyranny of global arrogance and its proxies. Undoubtedly, a significant share of this great achievement is owed to the patience, dignity, sacrifice, and solidarity of the Lebanese people, particularly those of southern Lebanon.”
    • “In accordance with the policies of the revered leader and martyr of the revolution, Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei – may God’s blessings be upon him – the Islamic Republic of Iran has likewise designated the defense of these oppressed yet powerful fighters as a strategic policy. It has also made the preservation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity and the complete and unconditional cessation of the Zionist regime’s aggression the foremost condition of the memorandum of understanding to end the imposed war with the aggressor, the United States.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Debating Policy in Public: Iranian Elites Turn to YouTube

Rival camps within the Islamic Republic are increasingly turning to YouTube for policy debate, but there is a limit to the regime’s tolerance for that debate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

IRGC analyst Mehdi Kharatian speaks on TamamRokh’s YouTube channel, April 29. (Credit: Tamam Rokh)

The Committee of Six and Strategic Decision Making in Iran

Remarks by Iran’s president offer a rare glimpse of how the Islamic Republic has adapted its decision making to the absence of its supreme leader.

Ali Alfoneh

6 min read

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, left, President Masoud Pezeshkian, center, and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei sit around a table during a meeting at the presidential office in Tehran, Iran, October 4. (© Iranian Presidency via ZUMA Press)

Mohsen Rezaei at the Helm of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council

Under Rezaei, the SNSC could prove constructive or paralyze strategic decision making.

Ali Alfoneh

8 min read

Then-advisor to Iran's supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaei attends a farewell ceremony for late-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla in Tehran, Iran, July 3. (REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)

The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense

After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.

Ali Alfoneh

12 min read

Iranian Zolfaghar missiles are displayed by the armed forces in a temporary exhibition in front of the Azadi monument in Tehran, Iran, July 29. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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Events

Oct 6, 2026

Is the U.S.-Iran Stalemate a “New Normal” or the Prelude to Another Explosion?

On October 6, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iran stalemate and the prospects for a cease-fire.

President Donald J. Trump speaks to the United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 22, 2026, at the UN headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
President Donald J. Trump speaks to the United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 22, at the U.N. headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Jun 16, 2026

Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.

A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)
A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)

Apr 21, 2026

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability

On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

In this photo released by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)
In this photo released by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
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