"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Qalibaf Emerges as Iran’s De Facto Wartime Leader

The July 17 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a written statement by Iran’s parliamentary speaker laying out Iran’s strategy for the future of the conflict.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

With Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei remaining in occultation, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf has emerged as the regime’s de facto wartime leader. A recent statement by Qalibaf lays out Iran’s political, military, diplomatic, and economic strategy, underscoring his central role in articulating and coordinating Tehran’s conduct of the conflict and its aftermath while signaling the regime’s readiness to pursue both war and negotiations in defense of its national interests.

  • July 15: In a written statement quoted by Islamic Republic News Agency, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf declared:
    • “As I have repeatedly said before, the United States will seize every opportunity to strike at Iran and advance its own interests. This is not limited to war or negotiations, nor is it confined to the current U.S. president. Therefore, whether in war or in negotiations, our approach must be guided by national interests and national security, and it must be realistic and long term. We have no choice but to rely on our own capabilities and become stronger.”
    • “The unified resistance of the Iranian people and our armed forces thwarted the enemy’s sinister plans during the 40-day war, forcing them to seek a cease-fire and enter negotiations. However, this certainly does not mean they have changed their fundamentally flawed strategy. The United States has always been driven by an arrogant and hegemonic mindset, and it will never accept a strong Iran.”
    • “We have never welcomed war, nor do we ever intend to, but we must always be prepared for battle and stand ready to defend our national security and national interests to the very end. At the same time, we must also make use of diplomacy and negotiations as instruments to advance and consolidate our national interests.”
    • “The memorandum of understanding has meaning only if its provisions remain valid and are being implemented. Otherwise, if the Islamic Republic of Iran derives no benefit from this document, then, in accordance with the ‘eye for an eye’ policy I have previously described, we have no reason to remain committed to such an understanding. As we are witnessing these days, our armed forces, as always, have complete freedom of action to confront enemy aggression.”
    • “Unlike during the 12-day war, we rightly closed the Strait of Hormuz during the 40-day war, because the conflict had created insecurity and endangered our national security. Today, our national security likewise depends on preserving ‘Iranian arrangements’ in the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring the maximum safe and unhindered passage of commercial vessels through this waterway so that the strait serves as a source of security for Iran. What process did we follow to realize this position? With the outbreak of the third imposed war in March, our armed forces asserted control over the strait. During the negotiations, we also stood firm and enshrined the Iranian arrangements governing the Strait of Hormuz in Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding. We then made this an instrument for securing implementation of the other four provisions representing our gains under the memorandum. Now that we have reached the implementation stage, the United States, having no legal or diplomatic leverage, is seeking to weaken the Iranian arrangements through force. However, based on the achievement we secured in the memorandum, we must stand firm until the rights of the Iranian nation are realized. The enemy is exerting pressure to compensate for its defeat, but Iran, relying on its own strength, will not allow the enemy to impose its will.”
    • “We should fear neither war nor negotiations; both are means of safeguarding our national interests. At this juncture, negotiations, as I have repeatedly stated, are not synonymous with compromise. Rather, alongside war, they constitute part of the broader strategy of resistance and the protection of our national interests. Coordinating and making full use of both diplomatic and military instruments to safeguard our beloved Iran is not merely a duty – it is an unavoidable necessity. Separating these two approaches or treating either one as the sole solution is a strategic mistake. We are engaged in a complex conflict with the world’s greatest material power, and we have achieved significant successes in this war. Therefore, our thinking and actions must be equally ambitious, sophisticated, and resilient.”
    • “The same logic applies to Lebanon, the lifting of sanctions, the future of U.S. military bases in the region, and avenging the martyrdom of the revolution’s imam and the other martyrs of these two imposed wars.”
    • “Accordingly, I call upon all the people of Iran, regardless of their political views or personal preferences, to preserve their unity by following the directives of the supreme leader, remain steadfast, and demonstrate that unity to our enemies. We all know that a difficult path lies ahead. They have threatened us before with naval forces, airstrikes, ground attacks, and more – and they have seen the outcome. Therefore, we must not be intimidated by the enemy’s threats.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?

The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf looks on as members of Parliament chant in support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran, Iran, February 1. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA/Handout via REUTERS)

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme

Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Ali Alfoneh

6 min read

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds Day rally in Tehran, Iran, May 31, 2019. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)
View All

Events

Jun 16, 2026

Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.

A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)
A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)

Apr 21, 2026

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability

On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

In this photo released by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)
In this photo released by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
View All