Iraqi Elections and a Water Crisis

While Iraq’s November 11 parliamentary elections and the question of Iranian influence in Baghdad are dominating Iranian media coverage, residents of Tehran are grappling with water rationing.

• November 8: Reformist Shargh reported on alleged “U.S. attempts to create a wedge between Baghdad and Tehran”:
  • “Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2025 are not merely a domestic issue but a stage for regional interactions. Maintaining a balance between Iran and the United States has been the cornerstone of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s foreign policy, while efforts to attract investment from the West and the Gulf states, alongside preserving relations with eastern neighbors, remain key to stability.”
  • “However, it appears that the United States has serious plans for these elections and for shaping the future political landscape to widen the gap between Tehran and Baghdad. The appointment of Mark Sawaya, an American Iraqi Chaldean entrepreneur, as U.S. special envoy to Iraq in the days leading up to the elections both reflects and reinforces this approach.”
• November 9: In an interview with centrist Fararu News, Mohammad-Saleh Sadeqian, an Iraq expert, stated:
  • “The Americans are now trying to steer Iraq in their desired direction along three main axes: first, advancing the Abraham Accords within the region’s new geography; second, determining the structure and role of the Popular Mobilization Forces; and third, shaping the future of Tehran-Baghdad relations.”
  • Sadeqian said, “In the coming days and weeks, Washington will launch an intensive effort to align Iraq’s next government with its own policies.”
  • “Whether Sudani succeeds in securing a parliamentary majority and remaining prime minister, or Nuri al-Maliki – or another figure – comes to power, the structure of relations between the two countries has been shaped in such a way that it will, in any case, maintain relative stability … The United States may be able to exert pressure on Baghdad’s political atmosphere for a time, but it can neither divert Iraq’s internal dynamics from the path of independence nor easily sever the bond between Tehran and Baghdad.”
• November 9: Reformist Etemad reported on water rationing in Tehran and prospects for drought in the coming years:
  • “Over the past few nights, the water supply to residents in various districts of Tehran has been cut off for several hours. According to Etemad’s investigation, in areas where the water has been cut so far, the interruptions have typically begun around 8 pm and continued until 6 the next morning. This policy, according to Energy Minister Abbas Ali-Abadi, is aimed at ‘managing the capital’s water resources.’ Ali-Abadi emphasized that ‘water pressure in certain districts will be reduced to nearly zero on some nights.’ However, so far neither the Tehran Province Water and Wastewater Company nor the Ministry of Energy has released an official, scheduled plan for the water cuts in the capital. As a result, Tehran residents currently only learn about water outages randomly and without prior notice.”
  • “According to the latest report from Iran’s Meteorological Organization, September-October was the driest period in the past 40 years. The country’s precipitation situation is extremely dire. Forecasts confirm previous trends, indicating that the ongoing autumn will also see below-average rainfall.”
  • “Official meteorological reports show that beginning in early December, drought conditions are expected to improve slightly and move toward normal levels, with precipitation returning to normal during the winter season.”
  • “However, existing data indicates that given the severe drought Iran has faced over the past six years, upcoming rainfall will not be sufficient to reverse the current unfavorable conditions. According to official data from the Water Research Institute, from 2024-25, total precipitation reached only 152 millimeters – a 40% decline compared to the 57-year average. Based on the same data, four provinces are experiencing rainfall deficits of 50% to 80%, while 15 provinces are facing declines of 30% to 50%.”
• November 9: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Mashregh News defended President Masoud Pezeshkian against parliamentarian Kamran Qazanfari’s accusations that drought is “divine punishment” for the president not enforcing the “Hijab and Chastity Law.”

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