A Conditional Yes to Continued Negotiations

Amid postwar uncertainty and economic strain, Iranian officials and former power brokers signaled conditional openness to renewed nuclear talks. They also invoked national cohesion and unity, supported by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated media, which denounced internal dissent by hard-liners. 

• July 19: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency quoted an interview of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with CGTN, the international arm of China Central Television, in which he commented on the state of nuclear negotiations: 

• • “We remain unpersuaded that our counterpart has the real will to reach a win-win solution … Reaching a negotiated solution is possible, but it requires the counterpart to have a real will, and the military option must be abandoned … As the recent attacks proved, there is no military option to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. The time has come for them to abandon their military ambitions and compensate for the damages they inflicted on us. At that time, we shall be ready to negotiate.” 

• July 19: In a front page article, IRGC-affiliated Javan discussed “the logic behind tactical negotiations” and extended conditional support to Araghchi’s position. The paper also quoted former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, who, following a long absence from politics, has reemerged as a central figure over the past year. Larijani argued:  

• • “For the Islamic Republic, negotiation is a tactic and not the strategy … Let the leader use negotiations when needed and not use the negotiation tool if not needed … Iran is not in a hurry to negotiate.” 

• • The United States “waged war against Iran, and it must first explain why it chose war.”  

• • Quoting unnamed political analysts, Javan wrote: “Larijani’s statements communicate messages at three different levels. To the domestic audience, he warns against rushing into negotiations without accounting for on-the-ground security conditions. To the United States, he asserts Iran will only negotiate from a position of strength and mutual interest, not out of desperation. To the axis of resistance, he emphasizes that active resistance must continue in coordination with diplomacy.” 

• July 19: IRGC-affiliated Mashregh News reported on hard-line criticism of Larijani, which the outlet condemned as the work of “the enemies of reason and Shia logic, those who raise noise to drown out the voice of reason, and if possible, assassinate logic and decapitate righteousness.” The article warned that “such individuals will be dealt with by the security services.” 

• July 19: Economist Ali Kartalaei wrote a column in Donya-ye Eqtesad on inflationary expectations: 

• • “Enormous costs have been imposed on Iran’s economy, and vast financial resources are needed for reconstruction, resources that were not anticipated in the government’s budget. This situation arises as the Iranian economy is already facing a chronic budget deficit.” 

• • “Fearing currency devaluation and price hikes … people buy quickly, demand increases, goods become scarce, and prices genuinely go up. This process turns inflationary expectations into a driving force behind actual inflation … So, even if the central bank avoids printing more money in the postwar period, the rise in the velocity of money caused by public fear of inflation can still drive up prices.” 

• • “Inflationary expectations are a psychological consequence of conflict and uncertainty that can drive price increases even after a cease-fire. While a cease-fire may reduce military tensions, without managing public expectations, transparently outlining economic recovery plans, reforming the budget structure, and allocating resources effectively, the country may remain under the shadow of war and inflationary expectations for a long time.” 

• July 21: Ali Velayati, former foreign minister and senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wrote on X:  

• • “The emphasis placed by the supreme leader on preserving national cohesion can entail changing certain prevailing social approaches of the state and prioritizing public satisfaction in a way that is tangible to the people. The people have already proved themselves, now it is the officials’ turn. Obsolete methods will no longer meet the needs of society in the aftermath of the war.” 

• July 22: Columnist Fatemeh Nasiri wrote about Iran’s water crisis in Donya-ye Eqtesad:  

• • “At present, Iran is facing a water shortage crisis due to a combination of natural factors, such as reduced rainfall and climate change, and human factors, including inefficient management and excessive exploitation of water resources.” 

• • “In recent days, many residents of Tehran and Alborz provinces have experienced water outages. Field investigations indicate that water cuts and pressure drops occur for extended hours in specific areas of Tehran. Concurrent with the onset of these outages, the Tehran Province Water and Wastewater Company issued a statement declaring: ‘The droughts of the past five years and the decline in rainfall in Tehran province during the current water year, unprecedented in the past 60 years, have severely affected Tehran’s water resources to the extent that the current reserves in the dams supplying Tehran’s water are at their lowest levels in the past century.’ Despite various institutions emphasizing the need for at least a 20% reduction in water consumption under the current conditions, no coherent or transparent plan for managing water resources has been formulated or announced.” 

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