Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?
Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.
Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington
Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.
The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary
An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.
Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis
Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.
Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict
Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
Events
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Jan 27, 2026
Iran’s State-Censored Media Reacts to Maliki’s Return to Power in Iraq
The January 27 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian media reactions to an announcement that Nuri al-Maliki is likely to return as Iraq’s prime minister.
Jan 23, 2026
Government Claims 3,117 Dead in Iran Protests
The January 23 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a government statement on the death toll for the protests in Iran.
Jan 20, 2026
Defiant Khamenei Blames Trump for the Protests
The January 20 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a speech by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blaming the United States for recent protests in Iran.
Jan 13, 2026
Decoupled From the Internet, IRGC Media Talks of Unity
The January 13 edition of the Iran Media Review considers IRGC-affiliated media’s unverifiable account of societal cohesion amid ongoing protests.
Jan 9, 2026
The IRGC Warns Iraq’s Kurdistan Region
The January 9 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes IRGC-affiliated media threats against Kurdish parties headquartered in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
Jan 6, 2026
Khamenei Comments on the Protests in Iran
The January 6 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s response to a new wave of protests.
