Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Mohsen Rezaei at the Helm of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council
Under Rezaei, the SNSC could prove constructive or paralyze strategic decision making.
The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense
After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.
Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making
Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.
The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.
How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?
The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.
Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme
Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.
Events
Oct 6, 2026
Is the U.S.-Iran Stalemate a “New Normal” or the Prelude to Another Explosion?
On October 6, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iran stalemate and the prospects for a cease-fire.
Speakers
Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.
Speakers
Apr 21, 2026
Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability
On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.
Speakers
Mar 18, 2026
In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.
Speakers
Mar 2, 2026
After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition
On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Oct 9, 2026
Food Baskets for the Faithful Servants
The October 9 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian media questions regarding aid distribution to government employees and the resentment building among Iranians left outside the circle.
Oct 6, 2026
Is Iran’s Economy in Free Fall or Will It Prove Resilient?
The October 6 edition of the Iran Media Review examines contrasting assessments of Iran’s economy.
Oct 2, 2026
Signs of Life: Tehran Signals Continuity at Home and Abroad
The October 2 edition of the Iran Media Review explores Iranian media efforts to demonstrate regime continuity.
Sep 30, 2026
U.S.-Iran Impasse
The September 30 edition of the Iran Media Review considers analysis on the underlying impasse between the United States and Iran – that neither side will surrender leverage without reciprocal concessions.
Sep 25, 2026
President Pezeshkian at the United Nations
The September 25 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian responses to a speech by the Iranian president and a meeting between the Iranian foreign minister and U.S. negotiators on the sidelines of the United Nations.
Sep 22, 2026
With Mojtaba in Occultation, Qalibaf and Rezaei Articulate Iran’s Terms
The September 22 edition of the Iran Media Review considers an IRGC-linked newspaper’s suggestion that the supreme leader might remain in hiding and statements by Iranian officials laying out Iran’s terms for negotiations with the United States.
