Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense
After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.
Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making
Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.
The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.
How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?
The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.
Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme
Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.
Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.
Events
Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.
Speakers
Apr 21, 2026
Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability
On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.
Speakers
Mar 18, 2026
In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.
Speakers
Mar 2, 2026
After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition
On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Aug 21, 2026
Qalibaf and Pezeshkian at Odds With the IRGC?
The August 21 edition of the Iran Media Review examines arguments from Iranian leaders for ending the war with the United States through negotiations rather than escalating.
Aug 18, 2026
Qalibaf: The Strait of Hormuz Will Not Reopen
The August 18 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights a speech by Iran’s parliamentary speaker pledging not to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States fulfills the conditions of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.
Aug 14, 2026
Iran Has No Intention of Relinquishing the Strait of Hormuz
The August 14 edition of the Iran Media Review considers remarks made by the new Supreme National Security Council secretary on his first day in office.
Aug 11, 2026
Major General Mohsen Rezaei Appointed Supreme National Security Council Secretary
The August 11 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian media responses to the appointment of a new Supreme National Security Council secretary.
Aug 7, 2026
The Hidden Ayatollah Denies Seeking the President’s Dismissal
The August 7 edition of the Iran Media Review examines an Iranian newspaper debunking an official’s claim to have the ear of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Aug 4, 2026
The IRGC Warns of the “End of Calm at Aramco”
The August 4 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian media responses to Saudi strikes in Iraq and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
