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Analysis

For Now, Iran and Hezbollah Court Trouble but Avoid It

The October 27 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iran’s delicate balancing act amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Unofficial and official mouthpieces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council have joined forces in a difficult task. They are attempting to build a heroic public image of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and declare Iran the center of resistance to Israel but also free Nasrallah of the obligation to take part in the Israel-Hamas conflict and dismiss Iranian involvement in Hamas’ October 7 attack against Israel. Iran and Hezbollah are courting trouble but have so far avoided it, though it is unclear how long this will last.

  • October 25: IRGC mouthpiece Mashregh News reported that Nasrallah received Ziad Nakhale, the secretary general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ political wing. In their October 25 meeting, they reportedly “considered the northern front and ongoing fights in the border area between Lebanon and the occupied land,” referencing Israel. The three men also allegedly exchanged views on “means to achieve a true victory of the resistance in the Gaza Strip and Palestine and how to stop the aggression of the Zionist regime in these areas.” Nasrallah reportedly said that Palestinians killed by the Israel Defense Forces since October 7 should be remembered as “martyrs of the path to Quds,” or Jerusalem.
  • October 25: Nour News, the official mouthpiece of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, assigning great significance to Nasrallah’s unexceptional statement concerning the “martyrs,” wrote: “First, Western media and statesmen have tried to create divisions among members of the resistance … this ideological and strategic sentence by the seyyed of the resistance,” referencing Nasrallah, “has foiled the Hebrew-Arab objective … Second, Hassan Fazl-Allah,” a Lebanese parliamentarian “from the resistance front, has said that Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah is monitoring the battles and is well aware of all scenarios and possibilities, including operational and security matters. This sentence by the seyyed of the resistance cannot be unrelated to his intelligence superiority concerning current affairs … Third, the Gaza war has morphed the resistance front into a resistance system … Beyond joint operations, we are witnessing increased cooperation among resistance currents around a shared central strategic and tactical center … Fourth, the naming of the martyrs paves the path to Quds and conveys the message to the Zionists and their backers that the resistance will never forget its objective.”
  • October 25: In a separate story, Nour News dismissed The Wall Street Journal’s October 25 article “Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Before Oct. 7 Attacks.” Nour News wrote: “Releasing such news serves the purpose of deflecting attention from the irrecoverable defeat the Zionists suffered in the Al-Aqsa Deluge operation,” Hamas’ name for its October 7 attack. “The Palestinian resistance is a mature, independent, and popular current, and it has proved its natural and developing capabilities throughout years of struggle against Zionist criminals.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?

U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
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