Iranian-Saudi Relations: Neither “Grand Peace” nor Grand Catastrophe in Sight

As middle powers in a small region, Iran and Saudi Arabia are strategic rivals engaged in the difficult exercise of managing their rivalry, with Iraq serving as the chief interlocutor between the two sides. To judge by the analysis in Iran’s state-censored media, while a “grand peace” between Iran and Saudi Arabia may not be around the corner, a grand catastrophe also doesn’t appear imminent. 

• February 27: Under the headline “Is bin Salman’s Grand Peace With Iran Around the Corner?” reformist Fararu News commented on Iraqi officials’ increased efforts to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran. Answering the question raised in the headline, the newspaper noted six obstacles to such a “Grand Peace”: the uncertain future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal; Israel and Saudi Arabia’s increasingly close relations; instability in Iran; accumulated frustrations between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the past decades and their lack of successful cooperation; the absence of a win-win formula for negotiations; and the lack of progress in talks over the war in Yemen. 
• February 28: Khabar Online, quoting an article by London-based, Qatari-financed Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, reported that former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi visited Iran to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran.  
• February 28: West Asia expert Hadi Afqahi, commenting on the war in Yemen, said in an interview with Shabestan News: “The reason the Saudis continue their mischief is that they want to engage in negotiations from a position of strength. They don’t want to admit that they were defeated and are now seeking negotiations and a cease-fire.” Turning to Iran-Saudi Arabia negotiations in Baghdad, Afqahi claimed Saudi Arabia’s “primary request from us was to pressure the Yemenis to submit to Saudi demands. But the Islamic Republic of Iran will never allow itself to demand such a thing from the Yemenis … Iran can ask Yemen to prepare the ground for intra-Yemeni dialogue, but Saudi Arabia, too, must show its goodwill and take steps in this direction. The Saudis are engaged in ground and air encirclement of Yemen; have closed Sanaa airport, which is the only point connecting Yemen to the world; and have prevented ships from carrying fuel and food to the port of Hodeidah. Yemeni politicians must believe that the Saudis want to solve this issue.” In the meantime, Afqahi concluded: “Saudi Arabia must remain in the quagmire of Yemen, which imposes ever greater international scandal and growing military and economic costs on it.” 

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