Confrontation or Conciliation: How the Nuclear Agreement is Reshaping GCC-Iran Relations
On August 3, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joined a meeting of GCC foreign ministers in Doha after which the Arab Gulf states unanimously and publicly endorsed the international nuclear agreement with Iran.
On August 3, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joined a meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers in Doha, Qatar, after which the Arab Gulf states unanimously and publicly endorsed the international nuclear agreement with Iran. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which promises Iran phased sanctions relief in exchange for limitations on its nuclear activities, was agreed to in Vienna on July 15 by Iran and the P5+1 international consortium, comprising the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The Gulf countries had not been a party to the talks, and several of them had expressed official and unofficial concerns about the negotiations while they were ongoing. However, the joint statement released by the GCC foreign ministers and Kerry unified the Gulf position in favor of the agreement. In the statement, the United States and its GCC partners also “reiterated their opposition to Iran’s support for terrorism and its destabilizing activities in the region and pledged to work together to counter its interference… “
For the Gulf Arab countries, the future is more important than the present, but it is unclear if Iran, the United States, and Israel have the same vision.
The imperative for Gulf states to unify their position has grown since the onset of Iranian attacks on their countries. Yet under conditions of uncertainty about the U.S. position and the war's outcome, Gulf states are demonstrating differing regional alignments and preferences for managing the crisis.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi urged President Trump not to attack Iran, but now that the war is into its second month, leaving the current situation in place would be an unthinkable fiasco for them.
Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution.
After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran can maintain in the Arab world.
Gulf Arab countries urged the United States not to strike Iran, but now that is happening, they are in danger of being sucked into a conflict they cannot control but that will likely reshape their present and future realities.
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
