Tim Callen is a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Callen is a former assistant director in the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund. He served as the IMF’s mission chief for Saudi Arabia and as the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ division from 2012-21. He was responsible for the IMF’s engagement with the government of Saudi Arabia and for the institution’s research and publications on the country. He also led the IMF’s research program on the GCC region. From 2021-22, he served as special advisor to the executive director for Saudi Arabia at the IMF’s Executive Board. Callen’s research interests focus on oil exporting countries and include prospects and policies for economic diversification away from oil, frameworks and institutions to limit procyclical fiscal policy, and appropriate exchange rate policies. Callen joined the IMF in 1993 and also worked in the Asia and Pacific, Communications, and Research departments. Before joining the IMF, he worked in the Economic Departments at the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia and at Hambros Bank. He holds a bachelor’s in economics from the University of Essex and a master’s in economics from the University of Warwick.
Analysis
Not All Oil Is Created Equal
The conflict with Iran has curtailed the supply of oil from the Gulf, pushing up the price of the medium and heavier grades it usually exports relative to lighter grades.
The Economic Impact of the Iran Conflict on the Gulf
The Gulf is being significantly affected by the conflict with Iran, but the size of the economic hit varies among countries.
Demographics Mean That Job Creation Is Top of the Saudi Economic Policy Agenda
With young Saudis continuing to enter their working age years in large numbers, robust employment gains need to continue, but slower non-oil growth may present a challenge.
Should Saudi Policymakers Be Concerned About Rising Unemployment?
The recent increase in the Saudi unemployment rate is puzzling and may be due to statistical issues with the Labor Force Survey rather than a reflection of economic conditions.
The Ties That Bind: The U.S.-Saudi Trade and Investment Relationship
Trade and investment links between the United States and Saudi Arabia appear to be growing and will get a further boost when the Saudi crown prince visits the White House on November 18.
Vision 2030 Reforms and Economic Outcomes in Saudi Arabia
The Vision 2030 reforms are continuing to deliver positive economic outcomes, but the pace of gains is slowing in some areas.
Events
Mar 11, 2026
Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy
On March 11, AGSI hosted a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Dec 15, 2025
Looking to 2026: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges in the GCC
On December 15, AGSI hosted a discussion on the future of Gulf economies.
Speakers
Sep 4, 2025
Saudi Arabia: Sustaining Strong Growth Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
On September 4, AGSI hosted a discussion on the International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Article IV report on Saudi Arabia.
Speakers
Jul 22, 2025
Gulf Economic Outlook: The Role of Fiscal Policy in Navigating Gulf Countries Through Global Economic Uncertainty
On July 22, AGSI and the World Bank co-hosted a discussion on the "Gulf Economic Update" report.
Speakers
May 27, 2025
Saudi Arabia’s Sports Ambitions: Diversification and Sustainability?
On May 27, AGSI hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia's investment in sports.
Speakers
Saudi Economic Spotlight
Apr 2, 2026
Saudi Equities Outperform Global Markets
Saudi equity prices have risen since the start of the Iran conflict, outperforming many regional and global markets. Whether this continues will depend on how and when the conflict ends.
The Saudi Fiscal Deficit in 2025 Was Larger Than Expected
The 2025 budget deficit was larger than expected. The 2026 deficit is also likely to exceed the budget target, but higher oil prices may help contain any overrun.
Putting the 2026 Saudi Budget Under the Microscope
The Saudi government projects that the budget deficit will narrow during 2026-28, but this will depend on a rebound in oil prices and tight control of spending.
Nov 19, 2025
The Saudi Trade and Investment Commitment to the United States in Perspective
The $1 trillion Saudi trade and investment commitment to the United States will be extremely difficult to achieve given the size of the Saudi economy and its current financial situation.
Jul 1, 2025
The IMF Comments on the Saudi Economy and Policy Framework
The International Monetary Fund continues to endorse the direction of economic reform in Saudi Arabia but notes that risks from oil price uncertainty and strong credit growth will need to be carefully managed to keep the economy on a strong growth trajectory.
Apr 23, 2025
Saudi Current Account in Deficit in 2024 Despite High Oil Prices
The Saudi current account moved into a small deficit in 2024 despite oil prices of $80 per barrel. A return to a surplus is unlikely unless oil revenue moves sharply higher.
External Publications
“The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century
Ben Ltaifa, N., and T. Callen, 2024, “The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century (editor: John Sfakianakis), Oxford University Press.
“The Global Economy and the GCC,” in The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty
Bibolov A., T. Callen, and T. Zhang, 2023, “The Global Economy and the GCC,” in The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty, Brookings Institution Press.
Gulf Economies Need a Transformed Role for the State
Callen, T. and A. Hamaizia, 2021, “Gulf Economies Need a Transformed Role for the State,” Chatham House Expert Comment (republished in Arab Digest).
Non-Oil Revenue Reforms—An Initial Assessment of the Fiscal and Economic Impact
Alrashidi, A., T. Callen, and C. Jenkins, 2019, “Non-Oil Revenue Reforms—An Initial Assessment of the Fiscal and Economic Impact,” Saudi Arabia—Selected Issues Papers, International Monetary Fund
“Introductory Remarks” in Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification
Callen, T., R. Cherif, and F. Hasanov, 2016, “Introductory Remarks” in Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification, International Monetary Fund.
Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Growth
Al-Darwish, A., N. Alghaith, A. Behar, T. Callen, P. Deb, A. Hegazy, P. Khandelwal, M. Pant, and H. Qu, 2015, Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Growth, IMF Department Paper (Washington D.C.)
Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future
Callen, T., R. Cherif, F. Hasanov, A. Hegazy, and P. Khandelwal, 2014, Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future, IMF Staff Discussion Note 14/12 (Washington D.C.)
