Tim Callen is a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Callen is a former assistant director in the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund. He served as the IMF’s mission chief for Saudi Arabia and as the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ division from 2012-21. He was responsible for the IMF’s engagement with the government of Saudi Arabia and for the institution’s research and publications on the country. He also led the IMF’s research program on the GCC region. From 2021-22, he served as special advisor to the executive director for Saudi Arabia at the IMF’s Executive Board. Callen’s research interests focus on oil exporting countries and include prospects and policies for economic diversification away from oil, frameworks and institutions to limit procyclical fiscal policy, and appropriate exchange rate policies. Callen joined the IMF in 1993 and also worked in the Asia and Pacific, Communications, and Research departments. Before joining the IMF, he worked in the Economic Departments at the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia and at Hambros Bank. He holds a bachelor’s in economics from the University of Essex and a master’s in economics from the University of Warwick.
Analysis
Jun 20, 2025
Saudi Economic Outlook Amid Regional Conflict
Absent deeper and broader hostilities, the Israel-Iran conflict will have a limited impact on the Saudi economy.
Saudi Economic Diversification and the Current Account Deficit
Saudi Arabia has continued to make progress in diversifying its economy, although lower oil revenue, higher imports, and stronger remittance outflows pushed the current account into a small deficit in 2024.
The Trump Effect: The Potential Impact of the U.S. President on the Saudi Economy
Economic growth looks set to accelerate in Saudi Arabia this year, but the policies of President Donald J. Trump are creating considerable uncertainty for the outlook.
Distinguishing Myth From Reality: Saudi Arabia’s Trade and Investment With the United States
Saudi Arabia is an important economic and financial partner for the United States, but the dimensions of actual and potential Saudi investments and trade with the United States are currently being exaggerated.
Saudi Arabia on Global Stage for 2034 World Cup
Hosting the World Cup will be a huge opportunity for Saudi Arabia, supporting Vision 2030 reforms. While preparations for the tournament will be costly, they will boost economic growth and could spur further social change.
13 min read
Tougher Sanctions on Iran May Help Other OPEC+ Producers
The global oil market will be challenging for OPEC+ members in 2025, although the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports under the Trump administration may create space for production increases by other OPEC+ members.
Events
May 27, 2025
Saudi Arabia’s Sports Ambitions: Diversification and Sustainability?
On May 27, AGSI hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia's investment in sports.
Speakers
Mar 18, 2025
The Opportunities and Risks of Industrial Policy in the Gulf
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on industrialization in the Gulf.
Speakers
Mar 11, 2025
Digitalization, Growth, and Diversification in the Gulf
On March 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on digital transformation and economic diversification efforts in the GCC countries.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2025
Book Talk: The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century: Prospects and Realities
On January 8, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform its economy.
Speakers
Dec 19, 2024
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries Amid Regional Turbulence
On December 19, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the GCC countries' economic outlook for 2025.
Speakers
Sep 12, 2024
Transformation Underway: Assessing the Successes and Challenges of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Reforms
On September 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia’s reforms and the prospects for its economy.
Speakers
Saudi Economic Spotlight
Apr 23, 2025
Saudi Current Account in Deficit in 2024 Despite High Oil Prices
The Saudi current account moved into a small deficit in 2024 despite oil prices of $80 per barrel. A return to a surplus is unlikely unless oil revenue moves sharply higher.
Apr 9, 2025
What Do Lower Oil Prices Mean for the Saudi Budget?
The sharp drop in oil prices over the past week will result in a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing.
Mar 28, 2025
Positive Momentum Continues in the Saudi Labor Market
Robust growth in the non-oil economy and ongoing reforms are driving increased employment and labor force participation rates and lower unemployment among Saudi nationals.
Mar 5, 2025
Lower Aramco Dividends to Hit Government Budget and PIF in 2025
Aramco has announced it will pay a significantly lower dividend in 2025, which is bad news for the Public Investment Fund and the government, with the fiscal deficit in 2025 likely to be larger than budgeted.
Feb 12, 2025
Understanding Saudi Foreign Direct Investment Data
Attracting foreign direct investment is a key goal of Vision 2030, but tracking progress in this important area is complicated by data revisions and questions about the data accuracy.
Oct 31, 2024
New Data Paints a Rosier Picture of Saudi Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
Revised data suggests that FDI into the nonhydrocarbon sector in Saudi Arabia has been on an upward trend since 2020.
External Publications
“The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century
Ben Ltaifa, N., and T. Callen, 2024, “The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century (editor: John Sfakianakis), Oxford University Press.
“The Global Economy and the GCC,” in The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty
Bibolov A., T. Callen, and T. Zhang, 2023, “The Global Economy and the GCC,” in The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty, Brookings Institution Press.
Gulf Economies Need a Transformed Role for the State
Callen, T. and A. Hamaizia, 2021, “Gulf Economies Need a Transformed Role for the State,” Chatham House Expert Comment (republished in Arab Digest).
Non-Oil Revenue Reforms—An Initial Assessment of the Fiscal and Economic Impact
Alrashidi, A., T. Callen, and C. Jenkins, 2019, “Non-Oil Revenue Reforms—An Initial Assessment of the Fiscal and Economic Impact,” Saudi Arabia—Selected Issues Papers, International Monetary Fund
“Introductory Remarks” in Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification
Callen, T., R. Cherif, and F. Hasanov, 2016, “Introductory Remarks” in Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification, International Monetary Fund.
Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Growth
Al-Darwish, A., N. Alghaith, A. Behar, T. Callen, P. Deb, A. Hegazy, P. Khandelwal, M. Pant, and H. Qu, 2015, Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Growth, IMF Department Paper (Washington D.C.)
Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future
Callen, T., R. Cherif, F. Hasanov, A. Hegazy, and P. Khandelwal, 2014, Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future, IMF Staff Discussion Note 14/12 (Washington D.C.)
