U.S.-Iran Impasse 

Iran’s leadership is signaling that continued economic strangulation will carry rising regional costs. A statement issued in Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s name threatens U.S. naval forces, while Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf links neighboring countries’ oil exports and infrastructure security to Iran’s own. An appeal by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to American voters appears to extend this pressure campaign into U.S. electoral politics. Yet Donya-ye Eqtesad identifies the underlying impasse: Neither side will surrender leverage without reciprocal concessions. Tehran’s threats suggest an effort to challenge Washington’s possible calculation that further coercion will secure a better agreement, leaving both sides with incentives to escalate. 

• September 28: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, and most other Iranian news agencies, covered the latest public statement issued in the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to mark the anniversary of Iraq’s 1980 invasion of Iran, in which he was reported to have said: 

• • “In those days, the two seas south of Iran were a playground for enemy forces. Today, however, the painful blows inflicted by our valiant fighters and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz have kept them from venturing beyond the Arabian Sea. Whenever they have taken that risk, they have suffered damage – and soon the Arabian Sea, too, will be rid of them.” 

• September 29: Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of Iran’s Parliament, said in his opening remarks as quoted by Supreme National Security Council mouthpiece Nour News Agency:  

• • “Both the Americans and other countries should know: As we have said before, if we cannot sell oil in the region, no one will sell oil, and if our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe.” 

• September 29: IRGC-affiliated Mashregh News Agency published “an open letter to the American people” from the IRGC in what appears to be messaging aimed at influencing the U.S. midterm elections: 

• • “Those who can change this grim fate are you, the American people. Distance yourselves from the occupiers of Palestine, who, whether they like it or not, must leave that land and return to their own countries. We can coexist peacefully … Entrust your affairs to thinkers rather than thugs, and remind them that the world has changed.” 

• September 30: Economic newspaper Donya-ye Eqtesad analyzed the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations:  

• • “The central problem is that neither side is willing to relinquish its most important leverage before securing a corresponding concession. Tehran seeks relief from economic pressure, the lifting of oil restrictions, and an end to – or easing of – the blockade. Washington, meanwhile, seeks verifiable constraints on Iran’s nuclear program and assurances that Iran will fulfill its commitments. The central question in the negotiations is therefore no longer whether talks will continue but who must make the first substantive concession and what they will receive in return. Any lasting arrangement must resolve this issue. If Iran relinquishes its leverage before receiving a tangible concession, its bargaining power will diminish. If the United States lifts sanctions and eases pressure before securing the assurances it seeks, Washington will see itself as surrendering some of its own leverage. Against this backdrop, an important hypothesis emerges about the Trump administration’s calculations: Washington may still believe that intensifying pressure over the coming months could yield a better outcome than reaching an immediate agreement. According to this interpretation, a combination of sanctions, economic pressure, maritime restrictions, and targeted strikes could gradually raise the costs of continued resistance for Tehran, ultimately pushing Iran to accept an agreement offering greater concessions to the United States.” 

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