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Analysis

The IRGC Backs Ali Larijani the Pragmatist

The August 8 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an IRGC-affiliated newspaper’s reaction to Ali Larijani’s appointment to the SNSC.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

In the latest example of external pressure fostering intraelite cohesion, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ primary media outlet praised President Masoud Pezeshkian’s August 5 appointment of Ali Larijani as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Larijani’s return to the upper echelons of power marks a further step in the consolidation of Iran’s emerging collective leadership, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains in hiding, fearing an Israeli assassination attempt. 

  • August 6: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Javan praised President Masoud Pezeshkian’s appointment of Ali Larijani as Supreme National Security Council secretary, suggesting that it: 
    •  “signifies the return of an experienced and effective figure to the forefront of strategic national security decision making. Rather than being a purely political move, it reflects the regime’s inclination to prioritize expertise in times of crisis … It also demonstrates the leadership’s need for an individual who not only enjoys relative acceptability across the country’s political factions but is also capable of managing complex regional and international developments … Larijani’s recent visit to Russia likely signals his new role in handling high-level relations with major powers, such as Russia and China. He is among the few who can strike a balance in Iran’s international relations without succumbing to either emotionalism or excessive conservatism … Given his current role as a political advisor to the leader, as well as his prior experience in Parliament, diplomacy, and national security, Larijani is expected to act as a mediator and balancer across key domains of macrolevel decision making, including the military establishment, the Cabinet, and even political currents … Thanks to his extensive networks at home and abroad and his systemic approach to policymaking, he is well-positioned to guide sensitive issues, such as regional diplomacy, revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or an alternative to it, relations with Russia, China, and the emerging powers, and domestic and regional security challenges.”  

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)

Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington

Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Workers fix damage to an Aramco oil processing facility after a September 14, 2019 attack in Abqaiq, near Dammam, Saudi Arabia, September 20, 2019. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)

The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary

An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, greets journalists upon his arrival to meet with the Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis

Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet in Tehran, Iran, August 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)
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Events

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
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