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Analysis

The IRGC Backs Ali Larijani the Pragmatist

The August 8 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an IRGC-affiliated newspaper’s reaction to Ali Larijani’s appointment to the SNSC.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

In the latest example of external pressure fostering intraelite cohesion, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ primary media outlet praised President Masoud Pezeshkian’s August 5 appointment of Ali Larijani as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Larijani’s return to the upper echelons of power marks a further step in the consolidation of Iran’s emerging collective leadership, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains in hiding, fearing an Israeli assassination attempt. 

  • August 6: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Javan praised President Masoud Pezeshkian’s appointment of Ali Larijani as Supreme National Security Council secretary, suggesting that it: 
    •  “signifies the return of an experienced and effective figure to the forefront of strategic national security decision making. Rather than being a purely political move, it reflects the regime’s inclination to prioritize expertise in times of crisis … It also demonstrates the leadership’s need for an individual who not only enjoys relative acceptability across the country’s political factions but is also capable of managing complex regional and international developments … Larijani’s recent visit to Russia likely signals his new role in handling high-level relations with major powers, such as Russia and China. He is among the few who can strike a balance in Iran’s international relations without succumbing to either emotionalism or excessive conservatism … Given his current role as a political advisor to the leader, as well as his prior experience in Parliament, diplomacy, and national security, Larijani is expected to act as a mediator and balancer across key domains of macrolevel decision making, including the military establishment, the Cabinet, and even political currents … Thanks to his extensive networks at home and abroad and his systemic approach to policymaking, he is well-positioned to guide sensitive issues, such as regional diplomacy, revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or an alternative to it, relations with Russia, China, and the emerging powers, and domestic and regional security challenges.”  

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict

Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian attend an endorsement ceremony in Tehran, Iran, July 28, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

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Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?

U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
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