Iranian Media Expresses Relief Over Iraqi Election Outcome

Iran’s regional proxy networks have been weakened, especially since Israel’s highly disruptive electronic-device attacks on Hezbollah in September 2024, which exposed serious vulnerabilities in Iran’s “axis of resistance.” Simultaneously, Tehran’s ability to fund and sustain these networks is under pressure from economic sanctions and internal fiscal strain. Against this backdrop, Iranian analysts are carefully monitoring the aftermath of the parliamentary elections in Iraq, relieved that Iran’s allies appear to have held on to their seats. But the question now is what policies these allies will pursue if Iranian financial and logistical support wanes.

• November 13: In an interview with economic newspaper Donya-ye Eqtesad, Ardeshir Pashang, a journalist and Iraq expert, commented on the results of the Iraqi parliamentary elections:
  • “Muqtada al-Sadr is considered the initial loser of these elections, because voter turnout in this round was higher than in the previous one. Sadr had assumed that, due to the government’s failures in providing services to the population, turnout would be lower, and the government’s legitimacy would diminish. He expected the elections to unfold in a way that might shift the formula and the situation in favor of the Sadrist movement and its opponents. But that did not happen.”
  • “Trump has set a series of red lines for Iraqi officials. These red lines include several issues, among them the U.S. insistence that in Iraq’s next government, no minister from the Popular Mobilization Forces or resistance groups should enter the Cabinet. Of course, we must wait and see whether this will be the case in practice. We are witnessing that, in these elections, the situation of the Popular Mobilization Forces, or groups affiliated with the ‘axis of resistance,’ has been relatively strengthened.”
  • “Mohammed al-Sudani and Nuri al-Maliki are proceeding in a direction aimed, first, at avoiding hostility with the United States, and second, at enabling them to cooperate simultaneously with both the United States and Iran while also expanding their own independence of action. Therefore, in my view, one cannot interpret the results of these Iraqi elections to mean that the United States has been defeated or weakened.”
  • “The United States will try, to some extent, to intensify political pressure on forces aligned with Iran, and we must see what course the new Iraqi government will take on this matter. Let us not forget that, although Mr. Sudani is considered a Shia candidate and has good relations with Iran, he has clear boundaries. In the previous term, as prime minister, he emphasized an alternative term instead of ‘Persian Gulf’ in his official interviews. In dealings with the Iranians as well, he was among those who – informally but effectively – prevented Iran’s public and private sectors from gaining a more prominent presence in Iraq. Thus, this trend will continue, but it does not mean that Iraq is lost for Iran or that Iran is being weakened in Iraq.”
• November 13: Reformist Vatan-e Emrouz published an analysis of the Iraqi elections under the headline: “The Vote of the Resistance”:
  • “Sadr’s boycott of the elections suffered a severe defeat … and despite all pressures, the Shia, through the votes of the people, secured a stronger position. Political currents close to the ‘axis of resistance,’ such as the State of Law, Badr Organization, Huqooq, and Al-Sadiqoun blocs, won very strong support.”
  • “Furthermore, the next prime minister must once again be selected by the united Shia coalition within the Coordination Framework, and Sudani will have to pass through the Coordination Framework to reach the premiership. Another important point is that candidates close to the Baath Party among the Sunnis, as well as secular Shia candidates, performed poorly, while the Tishreen movement, which caused major unrest in Iraq in 2019, was defeated due to its weak performance in recent years.”
  • “Domestically, this vote also showed that alignment with the ‘axis of resistance’ and economic development in Iraq are supported by the majority of Iraqis. Another key message of these elections concerns foreign relations. The strong vote for the Shia current, structured around ‘axis of resistance’-aligned blocs, such as State of Law, Al-Sadiqoun, Hezbollah, Badr, and Hikma, showed that U.S. efforts to pressure the ‘axis of resistance’ and disarm these groups will lead nowhere. These groups are now resuming their activities stronger than before.”

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