Former IRGC Chief Weighs In on Potential for Renewed Conflict With Israel

In its public information campaigns, Iran’s propaganda apparatus differentiates between messaging broadcast by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, which targets the general public, and content intended for more discerning media consumers – including the regime’s loyal base – distributed through select YouTube channels. Majaraa Media appears to be one such channel, having so far released nine interviews with Iranian officials regarding the June conflict with Israel and the United States. The latest episode featured former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, who is best known for preparing Iran’s security services to suppress the 2009 antiregime protests and for predicting on the eve of Israel’s June 13 strikes that Israel “would not dare attack Iran.” In this interview, however, Jafari struck a more nuanced tone.

• October 23: Majaraa Media’s YouTube channel featured an interview with former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, in which he stated:
  • “Will war break out again? The reality is that this cannot be predicted. If the enemy wishes to act rationally, it should not reach such a decision. The enemy may, however, commit such audacity, but it must be remembered that previous examples have shown the enemy’s will has been constrained by divine will and the will of the people.”
  • “The enemy may believe that, if it acts more quickly, we won’t have the chance to remedy our weaknesses and increase our readiness. Therefore, it may rush. Conversely, the consequences of starting a war – the economic pressures and the losses the enemy has suffered so far – prevent hasty decision making. Even political and domestic calculations, such as the situation of Israel’s prime minister and the need to preserve his position, influence that decision.”
  • “The enemy’s mechanisms, sanctions, and preparatory measures can create conditions for hostile actions, but the experience and readiness of Iran’s armed forces and the backing of the people indicate that any aggression will be met with a proportionate response. Therefore, the outbreak of war is not certain and always depends on the enemy’s calculations and decisions.”
  • Concluding the interview, Jafari stated that “the enemy’s real vulnerability is in the Persian Gulf,” and did not rule out Iran, in a defensive act, taking measures to “close the Strait of Hormuz.”

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