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Analysis

The IRGC Warns of the “End of Calm at Aramco”

The August 4 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian media responses to Saudi strikes in Iraq and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

Iran appears to be signaling its response to Saudi involvement in strikes in Iraq. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Mashregh News Agency’s warning that “calm at Aramco” may end, followed by a Houthi strike on Najran Airport in Saudi Arabia, suggests Tehran is reminding Riyadh that further intervention could expose Saudi oil infrastructure to renewed attacks.

  • August 3: In a short “analysis,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Mashregh News Agency explained Iran’s likely reaction to the Saudi air force’s involvement in strikes against militias in Iraq:
    • “Riyadh, invoking Article 51 of the U.N. Charter – the right to self-defense – has characterized these strikes as a response to drone attacks against its oil facilities. This Washington-Riyadh military synergy signals the emergence of a new operational axis in the region, in which Saudi Arabia is playing a more active role in the military confrontation with the ‘axis of resistance.’ This action, aimed at undermining Iraq’s national sovereignty and projecting the government’s inability to provide security, may be seen as a prelude to intensified pressure on Baghdad to reduce its ties with Tehran and retreat from security cooperation with the ‘axis of resistance.’ How will Iran respond to the attack in Iraq? The end of calm at Aramco!”
  • August 4: Reformist Entekhab, quoting a Houthi public statement, reported:
    • “Yemen’s Ansar Allah forces have struck a target at Najran Airport in Saudi Arabia … a drone struck a ‘sensitive target belonging to the Saudi enemy at Najran Airport’ in southern Saudi Arabia, achieving a ‘precise hit.’ The statement added: ‘This attack was carried out in response to the Saudi enemy’s violation of Yemeni airspace over the provinces of Saada and Hajjah using drones.’”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Debating Policy in Public: Iranian Elites Turn to YouTube

Rival camps within the Islamic Republic are increasingly turning to YouTube for policy debate, but there is a limit to the regime’s tolerance for that debate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

IRGC analyst Mehdi Kharatian speaks on TamamRokh’s YouTube channel, April 29. (Credit: Tamam Rokh)

The Committee of Six and Strategic Decision Making in Iran

Remarks by Iran’s president offer a rare glimpse of how the Islamic Republic has adapted its decision making to the absence of its supreme leader.

Ali Alfoneh

6 min read

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, left, President Masoud Pezeshkian, center, and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei sit around a table during a meeting at the presidential office in Tehran, Iran, October 4. (© Iranian Presidency via ZUMA Press)

Mohsen Rezaei at the Helm of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council

Under Rezaei, the SNSC could prove constructive or paralyze strategic decision making.

Ali Alfoneh

8 min read

Then-advisor to Iran's supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaei attends a farewell ceremony for late-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla in Tehran, Iran, July 3. (REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)

The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense

After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.

Ali Alfoneh

12 min read

Iranian Zolfaghar missiles are displayed by the armed forces in a temporary exhibition in front of the Azadi monument in Tehran, Iran, July 29. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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Events

Oct 6, 2026

Is the U.S.-Iran Stalemate a “New Normal” or the Prelude to Another Explosion?

On October 6, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iran stalemate and the prospects for a cease-fire.

President Donald J. Trump speaks to the United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 22, 2026, at the UN headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
President Donald J. Trump speaks to the United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 22, at the U.N. headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Jun 16, 2026

Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.

A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)
A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)

Apr 21, 2026

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability

On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

In this photo released by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)
In this photo released by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
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