President Trump has led the United States into an impossible dilemma in which resuming and intensifying the war presents one set of alarming consequences while ending it under current circumstances offers at least as many disasters for Washington.
The outbreak of the Iran war has halted the deepening of the economic relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries. While likely temporary, it could take some time before the upward trajectory is restored.
Oman has benefitted from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, but continued conflict and Oman’s highwire neutrality balancing act mean that the sultanate’s economic windfall is still in danger.
France is positioning to be a more influential actor across the Middle East, but the European powerhouse is most likely to see immediate traction on the economic tracks that run to and from the Gulf.
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.
Egypt has become the indispensable transit state linking Saudi Arabia's Red Sea infrastructure with global markets. But that strategic importance may also have exposed it to the same risks facing Gulf producers.
Following the high of the inaugural Art Basel Qatar, and the low of the ongoing Iran war, Qatar is doubling down on global and regional cultural diplomacy.
