"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Ayatollah Khamenei Warns Washington of a “Regional War”

The February 3 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a speech by the supreme leader threatening a “regional war” if Iran is attacked by the United States.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

During an address commemorating the “10 Days of Dawn,” leading up to the February 11 anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei framed the 12-day war in June 2025, protests that began in December 2025, and recent U.S. naval buildup as interconnected elements of a U.S.-Israeli plot to overthrow the Islamic Republic. He warned Washington that if the United States were to “start a war,” it would escalate into a “regional war,” a deliberately ambiguous threat implicitly directed at U.S. allies in the region.

  • February 1: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke at an event commemorating the lead up to the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. A transcript of his remarks was published on his website:
    • Khamenei described the protests – specifically protests on January 8 and 9, which appear to have been the most violent days – as “American-Zionist sedition” instigated by President Donald J. Trump’s call to the people of Iran to rise against the regime in Tehran.
    • Turning to the protesters, Khamenei said: “Those involved were of two types: ringleaders and foot soldiers … The ringleaders were trained and paid; they had been taught how to act, where to attack, how to gather youth and speak to them. Many of them were arrested and confessed. Another group were emotional young people who were swept along by the noise; we do not have much problem with them.”
    • As for the performance of the security services, Khamenei said: “Our security forces, the Basij, the police, and other responsible bodies performed their duties well. They acted with patience and wisdom; they distinguished between those who had been deceived and those who were the main agents. This is an important point: In such incidents, one must differentiate between the instigators and the ordinary people who may have been drawn in emotionally.”
    • Khamenei also blamed the high number of fatalities on the protesters: “Another characteristic of this sedition was that its trained ringleaders were tasked with manufacturing deaths, creating casualties … For this reason, they carried out armed attacks on military and law-enforcement centers, using advanced personal weapons, so that a reaction would be provoked from the other side and people would be killed. And they did not stop at this; they even shot from behind at the very foot soldiers whom they themselves had brought to the scene through propaganda.”
    • Concluding the speech, Khamenei warned the United States of the risk of a regional war: “What you sometimes see – this talk of war, ‘we will come with such-and-such aircraft and do this and that’ – is nothing new. In the past as well, the Americans repeatedly used to threaten in their statements that all options are on the table. All options includes the option of war; they were always saying this: ‘All options are on the table.’ Now this gentleman, too, keeps claiming the same thing, saying, ‘Yes, we have brought aircraft carriers and done such things.’ In my view, the Iranian nation should not be frightened by these matters; the Iranian people are not influenced by such words and do not fear confronting what is right. We are not the initiators; we do not wish to wrong anyone nor to attack any country. But the Iranian nation will deliver a firm blow to anyone who harbors greed and seeks to attack or harm it. And the Americans should also know this: If they start a war this time, it will be a regional war.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)

Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington

Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Workers fix damage to an Aramco oil processing facility after a September 14, 2019 attack in Abqaiq, near Dammam, Saudi Arabia, September 20, 2019. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)

The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary

An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, greets journalists upon his arrival to meet with the Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis

Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet in Tehran, Iran, August 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)
View All

Events

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
View All