"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Government Claims 3,117 Dead in Iran Protests

The January 23 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a government statement on the death toll for the protests in Iran.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian government agencies have released an official death toll for the protests that began on December 28, 2025, claiming a total of 3,117 fatalities. Of these, 2,427 were described as “martyrs,” a designation used by the government to include members of the security services, pro-regime demonstrators, or individuals it claims were accidentally killed during clashes between protesters and security forces. None of these figures can be independently verified as long as Iran remains offline. However, historically, protests in Iran have not involved sustained, organized clashes among competing civilian demonstrators. Rather, violence has overwhelmingly occurred between protesters and state security forces. On this basis, the individuals labeled “martyrs” were likely either members of the security services, protesters mischaracterized as regime supporters, or civilians whose deaths are being attributed to accidental circumstances.

  • January 21: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reposted a statement from the Supreme National Security Council on its Telegram channel. According to the statement, 3,117 people were killed in the protests, 2,427 of whom were “martyrs,” meaning they were either members of the security forces or have been characterized as regime supporters.
  • January 21: The Martyr Foundation, quoted on Tasnim’s website, confirmed the Supreme National Security Council’s data.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense

After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.

Ali Alfoneh

12 min read

Iranian Zolfaghar missiles are displayed by the armed forces in a temporary exhibition in front of the Azadi monument in Tehran, Iran, July 29. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making

Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

Iran's parliamentary speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, and foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, listen to Abolfazl Amouei, Qalibaf's international affairs assistant, during a flight to Switzerland, June 21. (Hamed Malekpour/ICANA via AP)

The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership

While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Iranian Member of the Assembly of Experts Mohsen Qomi, Advisor to Iran's supreme leader Mohsen Rezaei, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian attend a farewell ceremony for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla in Tehran, Iran, July 3. (REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)

How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?

The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf looks on as members of Parliament chant in support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran, Iran, February 1. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA/Handout via REUTERS)
View All

Events

Jun 16, 2026

Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.

A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)
A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)

Apr 21, 2026

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability

On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

In this photo released by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)
In this photo released by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
View All