"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Tasnim News Warns Against Iran’s “Gorbachev Moment”

The August 22 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights an IRGC-linked newspaper’s criticism of Iran’s new Supreme National Security Council secretary.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

While Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked outlets, such as Javan, have welcomed the return of the pragmatic Ali Larijani – an advocate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and a proponent of negotiations with the United States – to the Supreme National Security Council, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency cautioned against tying the resolution of Iran’s problems to talks with Washington, warning of a potential “Gorbachev moment” for Iran – a reference to Mikhail Gorbachev’s dissolution of the Soviet Union. 

  • August 19: Jafar Hassankhani, deputy director of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mouthpiece Tasnim News Agency’s Strategic Studies Center, wrote: 
    • “After the cessation of the war between Iran and the Zionist regime and the United States, the reformists, who for a long time have not been the driving force of political developments in Iran and, having fallen behind the course of events, have turned into a following sociopolitical force, have begun serious activity … demanding fundamental changes … However, calling for fundamental and structural changes amid crisis and war is neither prudent nor rational.” 
    • “One of the most prominent examples of Iranian politicians who seem to have fallen into a ‘Gorbachev moment’ trap is former President Hassan Rouhani. At the height of the nuclear negotiations, in a speech delivered on June 7, 2015,” Rouhani presented an agreement with the United States as the solution to Iran’s problems.  
    • “Another example was Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, who, along with some cabinet members, at the height of the economic pressures in 2018, explicitly stated: ‘The solution to all problems is negotiations with the United States.’ Although this view faced strong opposition from the revolutionary camp at home, the very emergence of such an idea among senior officials revealed the extent to which a self-demeaning and foreign-oriented mindset had penetrated.” 
    • “It must be emphasized that today’s Iran is not yesterday’s Soviet Union … it is now our duty, with open eyes and lessons drawn from history, to ensure that the ‘Gorbachev moment’ is not repeated in our land. Any politician today who ties the solution of the country’s problems to the White House, or to any foreign power, is in fact treading the same path once taken by Gorbachev.” 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)

Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington

Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Workers fix damage to an Aramco oil processing facility after a September 14, 2019 attack in Abqaiq, near Dammam, Saudi Arabia, September 20, 2019. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)

The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary

An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, greets journalists upon his arrival to meet with the Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis

Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet in Tehran, Iran, August 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)
View All

Events

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
View All