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Analysis

Spy War: Iran vs. Israel

The June 10 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian media reports about stolen Israeli nuclear documents and Israeli sabotage of Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Ali Alfoneh

6 min read

On June 8, Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib claimed that Iranian intelligence agencies had acquired a substantial cache of classified materials from Israel, including documentation related to Israel’s nuclear infrastructure and strategic installations. Also on June 8, the English-language edition of Iran Daily, which articulates the official narrative of the state, reported on Iran’s formal communication to the International Atomic Energy Agency, alleging that “contamination” detected at Iran’s nuclear sites by the agency was the result of Israeli sabotage rather than undeclared nuclear activity. While it remains difficult to independently verify these assertions, it is telling that the report highlighting Iran’s purported advancements in offensive intelligence operations is dominating state-controlled media, whereas the report implicitly acknowledging Israeli penetration of Iranian territory has appeared exclusively in English-language state media. 

  • June 8: Tabnak News Agency, which is aligned with former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Chief Commander Mohsen Rezaei, quoting Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib, reported: 
    • Ministry of Intelligence agents “have, through a sophisticated and multilayered operation, succeeded in obtaining a treasure trove of operational and technical intelligence from the Zionist entity … The intelligence is not limited to the nuclear domain … It includes the full spectrum of the Zionist regime’s nuclear documentation, records of its foreign relations with the United States, Europe, and other international actors, and intelligence enhancing Iran’s strategic deterrence capabilities.” 
    • Khatib refrained from detailing the operational methods through which the intelligence was acquired but stated: “This major operation, meticulously planned from the initial stages of infiltration and asset recruitment to the progressive expansion of access, was brought to fruition through divine providence and the perseverance” of Ministry of Intelligence agents. Khatib also expressed optimism that portions of the intelligence dossier will be declassified and released in the future. 
  • June 8: Iran Daily shared Iran’s official response to the IAEA under the headline: “Israel Behind ‘Sabotage, Contamination’ in Disputed Sites: Iran’s Nuclear Agency.”  
  • June 9: Centrist Khabar Online, citing a Supreme National Security Council statement about the alleged operation, reported:  
    • “Access to this intelligence, coupled with the completion of the intelligence-operational cycle, enables the warriors of Islam to, in the event of a preemptive or preventive strike by the Zionist regime on Iran’s nuclear facilities, retaliate by targeting Israel’s covert strategic assets. Any act of aggression against Iran’s economic or military infrastructure will be met with a proportional and reciprocal response.”  

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

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Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?

U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts

AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
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