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Analysis

All Roads Lead Away From Rome?

The May 2 edition of the Iran Media Review considers a report by an Iranian news agency following the postponement of the fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

Nour News Agency, which is affiliated with the Supreme National Security Council, reported on the postponement of the scheduled U.S.-Iranian diplomatic negotiations in Rome. 

  • May 1: Nour News Agency reported: 
    • “The postponement of indirect diplomatic negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States in Rome, merely three days prior to the scheduled talks, signifies emerging complications in the trajectory of bilateral diplomacy. Although the Omani foreign minister attributed the postponement to ‘logistical issues,’ the imposition of new sanctions by the United States, combined with the escalatory rhetoric of American officials, points to political motivations behind the postponement of the dialogue.”  
    • “Following the third round of negotiations in Muscat, the U.S. government sanctioned multiple Iranian entities and individuals, citing the Islamic Republic’s missile program. Concurrently, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth issued a warning against Iran’s support for Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, declaring: ‘You will pay the consequence at the time and place of our choosing.’ This articulation of coordinated statecraft – represented by Steven Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East – exemplifies the U.S. administration’s integrated approach of combining diplomatic engagement with coercive signaling during negotiation processes.” 
    • “Iran, for its part, has reiterated that negotiation and coercion constitute mutually exclusive strategies. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei underscored that a ‘resolution of differences is only achievable through reciprocal respect and a constructive diplomatic posture.’ Nonetheless … Baqaei also affirmed that the postponement of the scheduled negotiations occurred at the behest of the Omani foreign minister.” 
    • “In summary, while diplomatic channels remain open, they are evidently constrained by the U.S. administration’s strategy of coercive diplomacy. It appears that the U.S. administration seeks to maintain the facade of engagement while structurally recalibrating the negotiation framework to advance unilateral interests – an approach that has engendered strategic mistrust and the provisional postponement of dialogue. The potential discontinuation of negotiations with the European troika further illustrates the complexity and volatility of the current diplomatic landscape. While it may be premature to declare a diplomatic impasse, it is evident that the negotiations have entered a critical phase of testing the strategic intent and commitment of both parties. Should Washington aim for a durable and actionable accord, it must opt decisively between deterrent posturing and diplomatic engagement. The prevailing doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran maintains that dialogue and coercion are fundamentally incompatible modalities.” 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

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Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

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U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

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Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

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AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

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AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

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Jun 16, 2025

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On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

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In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
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