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Analysis

U.S.-Iranian Relations: From Wishful Thinking to Cautious Optimism

The October 6 edition of the Iran Media Review examines optimistic commentary on the prospects for U.S.-Iranian diplomacy.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

No, neither Apple nor Amazon is about to start doing business in Iran, and there is no immediate prospect for the normalization of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington. Nevertheless, there is a sense of cautious optimism about U.S.-Iranian relations in Iran’s state-censored media.

  • October 2: Technocratic Donya-ye Eqtesad emphasized that the recent registration of Apple and Amazon as businesses in Iran, which received significant attention after being revealed in the Official Gazette of Iran, was the work of a crafty businessperson hoping to represent the companies in Iran in the future. The registration was neither at the behest of the two companies nor a sign of the U.S. technology giants starting operations in Iran.
  • October 3: In an interview with reformist Aftab-e Yazd, Abd al-Reza Faraji-Rad, Iran’s former ambassador to Norway and Hungary, expressed cautious optimism about the future of U.S.-Iranian relations.
    • Commenting on Rodger Shanahan’s October 1 article in The National Interest defending U.S. diplomacy with Iran, Faraji-Rad said: “Clearly, talks between the Americans and Iranians but also negotiations with the Europeans, which were interrupted, are taking place. By taking a look at domestic politics in the United States,” the administration of President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “is under pressure from the House of Representatives, the Senate, and influential individuals in U.S. foreign policy. Therefore, the policy currently adopted by the Americans is one of continuing negotiations, reaching partial agreements, and preserving the status quo … Iran continuing uranium enrichment at the 60% level is perceived as a win for the Americans, and there really is no need for publicizing the talks and negotiations, which only risks further complicating the situation … The Americans are surely not looking for trouble before the election. Should the agreements” between Tehran and Washington “be satisfactory and should the Americans and their regional allies Saudi Arabia and Israel feel safe, they will remain committed to continuing negotiations. However, a great deed,” or a grand bargain between the United States and Iran, “being done is most unlikely prior to the” 2024 U.S. presidential election. Faraji-Rad concluded: “Due to the polarized atmosphere in the United States, the Americans are preventing the publicization of the negotiations and talks. Therefore, if we do not see news coverage of the subject, it does not necessarily mean the negotiations have ceased or are unproductive.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)
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Events

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
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