Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington
Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.
The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary
An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.
Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis
Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.
Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict
Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?
U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.
Events
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Jan 9, 2024
2024 Outlook
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Nov 21, 2025
Iran’s State-Censored Media on Saudi Mediation Between Tehran and Washington
The November 21 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian commentary on U.S.-Iranian relations and considers the possibility of Saudi mediation.
Nov 18, 2025
Seizure of Oil Tanker, U.S. Negotiations, and IAEA Relations
The November 18 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian statements about Iran’s seizure of a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker.
Nov 14, 2025
Iranian Media Expresses Relief Over Iraqi Election Outcome
The November 14 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian reactions to recent Iraqi parliamentary election results.
Nov 12, 2025
Iraqi Elections and a Water Crisis
The November 12 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian commentary on the upcoming elections in Iraq and Tehran’s water shortage.
Nov 7, 2025
Foreign Minister Araghchi: Negotiations With the U.S. Not a “Positive Experience”
The November 7 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes an address by the Iranian foreign minister about past negotiations with the United States.
Nov 4, 2025
Foreign Minister Araghchi on Future Negotiations With the United States
The November 4 edition of the Iran Media Review examines comments by Iran’s foreign minister about the United States’ “unreasonable demands” on Iran.
