Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary
An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.
Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis
Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.
Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict
Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
The United States on the Verge of Another “Forever War”?
U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.
Iran Is Attacked, the Gulf Reacts
AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.
34 min read
Events
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Jan 9, 2024
2024 Outlook
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Oct 7, 2025
“Cosmetic Surgery”: Iran Removes Four Zeros From Bank Notes
The October 7 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights criticism of a move by the Iranian Parliament to remove zeros from the national currency.
Oct 3, 2025
Iran: Resigned to Sanctions
The October 3 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian regime efforts to downplay the return of United Nations “snapback” sanctions.
Sep 30, 2025
Iranian Media Reacts to Snapback
The September 30 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian media responses to the European reimposition of pre-2015 United Nations sanctions.
Sep 24, 2025
Khamenei Nixes Negotiations With Washington
The September 24 edition of the Iran Media Review evaluates a speech by the supreme leader dismissing the possibility of negotiations with the United States.
Sep 23, 2025
Will Pezeshkian Meet Trump at the U.N. General Assembly?
The September 23 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian commentary on the possibility of U.S.-Iranian negotiations during the U.N. General Assembly.
Sep 19, 2025
The Rafsanjani Formula: “Face-To-Face Negotiations With the U.S.”
The September 19 edition of the Iran Media Review considers an editorial by Mohsen Rafsanjani, son of the late president, calling for direct negotiations with the United States to preserve security.
