Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?
Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.
Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington
Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.
The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary
An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.
Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis
Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.
Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict
Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?
The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.
Events
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Apr 29, 2025
The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?
On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Speakers
Jul 11, 2024
In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?
On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Feb 20, 2026
Resigned to War Yet Still Working Toward a Deal
The February 20 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian media analysis on the prospects for conflict and a potential deal to prevent it.
Feb 17, 2026
Money Talks: U.S.-Iran Negotiations in Geneva
The February 17 edition of the Iran Media Review explores an Iranian deputy foreign minister’s discussion of potential economic incentives Iran is offering to the United States.
Feb 13, 2026
Revolution Day in Iran: Celebrating Survival
The February 13 edition of the Iran Media Review explores Iranian narratives surrounding the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Feb 10, 2026
Iran’s State-Censored Media Reacts to the Oman Talks
The February 10 edition of the Iran Media Review examines cautiously optimistic Iranian media messaging following a new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Feb 6, 2026
Oman Negotiations Redux
The February 6 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian media analysis of renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations in Oman.
Feb 3, 2026
Ayatollah Khamenei Warns Washington of a “Regional War”
The February 3 edition of the Iran Media Review examines a speech by the supreme leader threatening a “regional war” if Iran is attacked by the United States.
