Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
Alfoneh also created AGSI’s Iran Media Review, a twice-weekly publication that monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Subscribe to receive the Iran Media Review Recap.
Analysis
Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme
Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.
Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.
Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival
Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.
Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective
The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.
Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?
Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.
Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington
Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.
Events
Mar 18, 2026
In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?
On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.
Speakers
Mar 2, 2026
After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition
On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Speakers
Jan 8, 2026
Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Speakers
Sep 16, 2025
Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History
On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.
Speakers
Jun 23, 2025
U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout
On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Speakers
Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran
On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.
Speakers
Iran Media Review
Apr 10, 2026
Tehran Signals a Coordinated Strategy Ahead of Islamabad Talks
The April 8 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian officials’ remarks ahead of cease-fire negotiations with the United States.
Apr 3, 2026
Eye for an Eye, Bridge for a Bridge
The April 3 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian responses to President Trump’s April 1 speech and U.S. strikes against an Iranian bridge.
Mar 31, 2026
Iran: From Defense to Offense
The March 31 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian reports that Iran is about to enter an “offensive phase” as well as warnings against a U.S. ground invasion.
Mar 27, 2026
Iran to Gulf States: Keep Your Distance – or Risk Being Drawn In
The March 27 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights Iranian officials’ threats to Gulf states not to get more involved in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Mar 24, 2026
Iran: Resilience, Defiance, and Willingness to Talk
The March 24 edition of the Iran Media Review considers Iranian messaging projecting a mix of defiance and a possible willingness to negotiate with the United States.
Mar 13, 2026
Quds Day in Iran
The March 13 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian media reports of regime defiance at Quds Day rallies as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues.
