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Analysis

U.S.-Iranian Relations: From Wishful Thinking to Cautious Optimism

The October 6 edition of the Iran Media Review examines optimistic commentary on the prospects for U.S.-Iranian diplomacy.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

No, neither Apple nor Amazon is about to start doing business in Iran, and there is no immediate prospect for the normalization of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington. Nevertheless, there is a sense of cautious optimism about U.S.-Iranian relations in Iran’s state-censored media.

  • October 2: Technocratic Donya-ye Eqtesad emphasized that the recent registration of Apple and Amazon as businesses in Iran, which received significant attention after being revealed in the Official Gazette of Iran, was the work of a crafty businessperson hoping to represent the companies in Iran in the future. The registration was neither at the behest of the two companies nor a sign of the U.S. technology giants starting operations in Iran.
  • October 3: In an interview with reformist Aftab-e Yazd, Abd al-Reza Faraji-Rad, Iran’s former ambassador to Norway and Hungary, expressed cautious optimism about the future of U.S.-Iranian relations.
    • Commenting on Rodger Shanahan’s October 1 article in The National Interest defending U.S. diplomacy with Iran, Faraji-Rad said: “Clearly, talks between the Americans and Iranians but also negotiations with the Europeans, which were interrupted, are taking place. By taking a look at domestic politics in the United States,” the administration of President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “is under pressure from the House of Representatives, the Senate, and influential individuals in U.S. foreign policy. Therefore, the policy currently adopted by the Americans is one of continuing negotiations, reaching partial agreements, and preserving the status quo … Iran continuing uranium enrichment at the 60% level is perceived as a win for the Americans, and there really is no need for publicizing the talks and negotiations, which only risks further complicating the situation … The Americans are surely not looking for trouble before the election. Should the agreements” between Tehran and Washington “be satisfactory and should the Americans and their regional allies Saudi Arabia and Israel feel safe, they will remain committed to continuing negotiations. However, a great deed,” or a grand bargain between the United States and Iran, “being done is most unlikely prior to the” 2024 U.S. presidential election. Faraji-Rad concluded: “Due to the polarized atmosphere in the United States, the Americans are preventing the publicization of the negotiations and talks. Therefore, if we do not see news coverage of the subject, it does not necessarily mean the negotiations have ceased or are unproductive.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

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Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)

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U.S. entry in the air war on Israel’s side could have seriously destabilizing consequences in the broader Gulf region unless the war ends quickly.

Ali Alfoneh

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Smoke rises from the building of Iran's state-run television after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 16. (AP Photo)

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AGSI explains what Israel’s sudden and massive attack on Iran is likely to mean for Gulf Arab states, Iran, the United States, and global and regional economies.

34 min read

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf

AGSI offers pragmatic, targeted policy recommendations for the Trump administration to maximize U.S. political and economic influence with the crucial emerging regional powers in the Gulf.

20 min read

President Donald J. Trump, fifth left, attends a group photo session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fourth right, UAE Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, second right, Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, left, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, third left, Kuwaiti Emir Meshal al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, second left, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi, right, during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Events

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

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On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

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On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Jul 11, 2024

In Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
People watch the debate of presidential candidates at a park in Tehran, Iran July 1, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/ West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)
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