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Analysis

The Rafsanjani Formula: “Face-To-Face Negotiations With the U.S.”

The September 19 edition of the Iran Media Review considers an editorial by Mohsen Rafsanjani, son of the late president, calling for direct negotiations with the United States to preserve security.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iran’s negotiations with the three European powers – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – over the “snapback” mechanism under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – which would reactivate United Nations sanctions against Iran – suffer from a fundamental flaw. While the Europeans demand that Iran fulfill its JCPOA obligations, Tehran insists on the removal of U.S. sanctions and security guarantees against renewed Israeli or U.S. military action, neither of which Europe is in a position to provide. As in the past, Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani, son of the late-President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has urged President Masoud Pezeshkian to pursue direct negotiations with the United States to resolve these issues. Yet there is no assurance that Washington regards Iran as a priority or deems negotiations worthwhile.

  • September 18: Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani, writing in technocratic Sazandegi, proposed diplomatic initiatives to prevent the reimposition of United Nations Security Council sanctions through activation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action “snapback” mechanism:
    • “We must consider what demands the three European countries have of Iran in order not to activate the ‘snapback.’ Are we ready, within the three-week deadline, to grant concessions? The nuclear file, from Iran’s perspective, has four key issues: 1. Inspections of damaged sites. 2. Clarification of uranium stockpiles. 3. The fate of 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. 4. A return to the JCPOA framework through some form of text agreed on with the Americans.”
    • “The minimum logical demands of Iran are lifting unilateral U.S. sanctions and providing security guarantees to prevent renewed U.S. or Israeli attacks,” over which the Europeans have no influence.
    • Therefore, “we need a comprehensive and different strategy so that with the remaining bargaining chips we can achieve successful results through diplomacy and free the country from current threats and sanctions … we need a courageous and prudent face-to-face negotiation with the United States to resolve all outstanding issues in a comprehensive agreement … We must seize opportunities to preserve security and prevent future disasters.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)

Iran Looms Over Saudi Visit to Washington

Saudi Arabia seeks a U.S. security umbrella strong enough to deter Iran but a diplomatic posture measured enough to avoid provoking Iran unnecessarily.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Workers fix damage to an Aramco oil processing facility after a September 14, 2019 attack in Abqaiq, near Dammam, Saudi Arabia, September 20, 2019. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)

The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary

An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, greets journalists upon his arrival to meet with the Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis

Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet in Tehran, Iran, August 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)
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Events

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
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