The Next Battlefield: AI, Cybersecurity, and the Evolution of Military Threats

At the 2025 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, Vice President JD Vance declared that the United States would pursue nothing short of artificial intelligence dominance. Just months earlier, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recommended a “Manhattan Project-like” initiative for AI.

These developments reflect a broader shift in which technological supremacy is now regarded as a primary lever of global power, and technological innovation is central to national defense. The rapid advancement of AI and its military applications has disrupted traditional models of deterrence and force projection. As AI capabilities increasingly converge with cyber warfare, technology is reshaping the global security landscape faster than regulatory and governance systems can adapt. Existing security architectures are poorly equipped to respond to this new form of warfare.

AI and the Transformation of Military Power

AI-driven weapons are already reshaping how wars are fought. Advanced militaries deploy AI to coordinate troop movements, identify targets with algorithmic precision, and conduct operations in real time, often with minimal human input. What were once theoretical systems are now operational assets in conflict zones across the globe.

The United States maintains a technological edge with semiautonomous platforms, such as the Aegis Weapon System and AI-enabled fighter jets, along with predictive intelligence tools, such as Palantir and Project Maven. These systems enable U.S. forces to rapidly process battlefield data and execute complex decisions with increasing autonomy.

But other countries are also adopting similar technology. Israel’s HAROP loitering munition can autonomously identify and strike targets without prior human direction. China’s “intelligentized warfare” doctrine integrates AI across military modernization efforts, from autonomous naval vessels and drone swarms to advanced surveillance technologies used for both battlefield and domestic control. Russia and Turkey have fielded autonomous systems in conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and Libya, including Russia’s Uran-9 and Turkey’s Kargu-2 drone.

Iran stands out for its widespread use of drones, such as the Shahed-136, which have been deployed by both state and proxy forces and seemingly have integrated AI. These systems have been used across the region, by Iran and its allies, as well as in Ukraine by Russia. Their affordability, range, and adaptability, now increasingly paired with AI-enabled targeting, make them ideal tools for asymmetric conflict.

As AI becomes a battlefield asset, autonomy and speed emerge as the key determinants of military advantage. Decision making is shifting from human commanders to algorithms trained to act faster and more precisely – and increasingly without oversight.

This growing reliance on AI introduces profound vulnerabilities. The same algorithms that streamline logistics can be used to identify chokepoints and cripple infrastructure. Neural networks designed to detect cyber intrusions can be repurposed to breach them. These capabilities collapse the line between defense and offense, and they are evolving faster than protective countermeasures can keep pace.

Military strategists now face a security environment where AI systems can generate deepfakes that spark diplomatic crises, shut down power grids, or destabilize markets all without conventional combat taking place. In this new paradigm, the thresholds for conflict are harder to define, and deterrence becomes more difficult to enforce.

Contemporary Conflict Zones: Testing Grounds for New Capabilities

The Middle East has become a laboratory for algorithmic warfare. In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, autonomous drones, AI-enabled targeting systems, and advanced data fusion techniques have transformed operational tactics on the Israeli side. In April 2024, seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen were killed by missiles launched from an autonomous drone. Israeli officials acknowledged the strike as a “grave mistake,” citing algorithmic misidentification, a stark example of the risks posed by partial automation in combat.

Iran has significantly expanded its cyber warfare toolkit through sophisticated AI-enhanced social engineering campaigns. In December 2024, the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security reported details on tactics involving creating fake online personas using AI-generated images and voices to build long-term relationships with high-value targets. These campaigns have specifically targeted defense contractors, aerospace employees, journalists, academics, politicians, and diplomats by posing as potential employers, think-tank representatives, or journalists. In 2024, Iranian operatives interrupted UAE television streaming services using a deep fake news anchor to deliver propaganda about the Gaza conflict. These AI-enabled social engineering operations, alongside Iran’s provision of AI-enabled drones to proxy forces, are now core to the country’s asymmetric warfare and regional influence strategy.

Though there is no substantial evidence yet of AI integration in Houthi drones themselves, the Houthis are leveraging new technologies. Recent intercepted shipments of military equipment to the Houthis have indicated that they are working to enhance their drone capabilities with jet engine technology and first-person view systems. Currently, Houthi drones rely primarily on Iranian technical support and conventional guidance systems rather than AI integration. However, this may change as AI technology is shared across the region.

Backed by Iranian technology, the Houthis have launched drone and missile attacks on civilian and military infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Their use of GPS spoofing, drone swarms, and AI-powered propaganda reflects a growing ability to destabilize regional powers using relatively low-cost, high-impact technologies.

The Gulf Arab states have similarly intensified efforts to strengthen AI and cyber defense capabilities. The UAE has launched a national cybersecurity strategy and invested in domestic drone production and AI-powered military surveillance drones. Saudi Arabia, under its Vision 2030 framework, is modernizing defense planning with integrated AI systems and developing a growing domestic defense industry. At the regional level, the Gulf Cooperation Council is advancing cyber intelligence sharing and coordinated digital threat response mechanisms.

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to warn of deepening cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, raising further alarms about advanced weapons proliferation and technology transfer to nonstate actors in the Middle East. These alignments amplify the risks of cyber-enabled conflict and strain the region’s ability to contain emerging threats.

The Governance Vacuum in Military Technology

What makes this security landscape particularly volatile is not just the proliferation of new military technologies but also the erosion of institutions meant to govern them. The United Nations Security Council has proved ineffective in addressing emerging threats that fall outside traditional warfare paradigms. Military powers increasingly prioritize technological advantage over restraint, with few incentives to develop or adhere to new governance frameworks.

As U.S. soft power tools are diminished and foreign aid is reduced, military spending continues to outpace investments in cybersecurity and conflict resolution. Private companies developing frontier AI models have become de facto participants in the security landscape without corresponding accountability mechanisms. The potential value of federal defense contracts for AI technologies increased by nearly 1,200% from August 2022 to 2023. The Pentagon awarded Silicon Valley company Anduril Industries a $250 million contract to counter drone attacks against U.S. forces with the company’s recoverable Roadrunner interceptor. Anduril Industries has also secured a $642 million, 10-year contract to supply AI-powered counter-unmanned aerial system technology to protect U.S. Marine Corps bases worldwide. Similarly, data analytics firm Palantir has become central to Pentagon AI strategy through Maven Smart System, which uses AI algorithms and machine learning to analyze large data volumes for “rapid detection, identification and tracking.” The Pentagon increased Palantir’s Maven Smart System contract ceiling by $795 million, anticipating surging military demand for the AI-powered targeting system.

Despite warnings from industry leaders about the potential harms of unregulated AI development, the market continues to reward technological advancement over security considerations.

Security in an Age of Algorithmic Warfare

Addressing these challenges around AI and new technology in warfare requires a comprehensive approach to military and security governance that acknowledges the transformed threat landscape. Effective governance will require distributed responsibility across the military, intelligence, and technology sectors. Defense departments worldwide should require thorough and independent security audits. Military oversight of these technologies should include simulated breakdown scenarios and mandatory contingency plans for algorithmic failures.

The future of warfare will not arrive with formal declarations or traditional deployments. It will emerge through software updates and network infiltrations. Military superiority will increasingly depend not on troop numbers or weapons platforms but on algorithmic advantages and digital resilience.

Military and security institutions must advance with care and foresight. Without effective governance mechanisms, the security landscape will continue to grow more volatile, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.