The IRGC Warns Iraq’s Kurdistan Region

On January 7, seven oppositional Kurdish parties headquartered in Iraq’s Kurdistan region called on Iranian Kurds to stage a strike on January 8. Following widespread business closures in Kurdish-populated cities in northwestern Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency threatened to hold the authorities of the Kurdistan region of Iraq responsible for the actions of Iranian Kurds allegedly operating from the region – not only for “inciting rebellion” inside Iran but also for preparing attacks against military and security facilities and associated arms depots.

Iranian authorities undoubtedly benefit from invoking the specter of separatism and risk of civil war to generate a rally-around-the-flag effect. And they may seek to externalize internal political and economic pressures by threatening or conducting strikes against targets in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. However, Iran’s troubled history with separatist movements in its peripheral regions suggests the prospect of escalation and internal conflict is nonetheless a legitimate concern.

• January 8: Tasnim News Agency reported on “the entry of separatist groups into the operational phase of the unrest”:
  • “Based on field evidence, militant groups based in northern Iraq have moved beyond the stage of psychological warfare and media operations and have entered an operational phase on the ground – a development for which examples have been observed in the provinces of Ilam and Kermanshah. This comes despite the Iran-Iraq security agreement, to which the Kurdistan region of Iraq is also committed, under which even the display and dissemination of images of weapons by these groups had been prohibited.”
  • “The serious question now being raised is how these groups, in clear violation of their security commitments, have advanced to the point of attempting attacks on military and security centers and ammunition depots. Accordingly, many experts believe that the time has come for the headquarters and active elements of these groups to be directly targeted within the framework of the security agreement and in light of the commitments that have been violated.”
  • “Meanwhile, the coordinated and purpose-driven performance of media outlets affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq in intensifying tensions and steering the social environment toward instability goes beyond a mere media approach and is assessed as part of a defined security puzzle.”
  • “Under such circumstances, it is expected that the authorities of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, fully aware of the consequences of the continuation of this trend, will immediately prevent their territory from becoming a platform for threats to Iran’s national security. It is also expected that officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran will not remain indifferent and will respond with precision and resolve to the media misconduct and violations of security commitments by the Kurdistan region of Iraq.”
  • “These developments are not a temporary episode of unrest but rather part of a directed operation within the framework of hybrid warfare and a continuation of the 12-day war against Iran. It is self-evident that should this trend persist or escalate, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s response will be decisive, deterrent, and beyond conventional diplomatic considerations, and responsibility for the consequences will rest directly with the supporters and facilitators of these anti-security and terrorist actions.”

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