Iranian Commentary on Potential Israeli Ground Invasion of Lebanon

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei finally broke his silence on suspected Israeli attacks against Lebanese Hezbollah in comments to war veterans September 25, but his words are yet to be followed by deeds. Noor News, a mouthpiece of the Supreme National Security Council, and Assad-Allah Zarei, a foreign policy analyst close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are vague in their warnings against a potential Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, which indicates uncertainty in Tehran regarding Israel’s intentions.   

• September 25: Receiving war veterans, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, as quoted by his official website:  
  • “Palestine, an Islamic land, has been usurped by the most evil infidels in the world. It is the decisive Islamic ruling that all should engage in a struggle to bring back Palestine and Al-Aqsa mosque to its original proprietors … Hezbollah is sacrificing itself for the sake of Gaza, which is why it is subject to bitter hazards, but Hezbollah is engaged in a holy war in the path of God … Hezbollah has suffered losses and sacrificed martyrs … but these losses will not neutralize Hezbollah, whose organizational and military strength is very robust.”  
• September 25: Nour News, unofficial Supreme National Security Council mouthpiece, wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter: 
  •  “Unprecedented military confrontation between Hezbollah and the Israeli regime is escalating and may result in unpredictable events. Tel Aviv, which enjoys direct American support, is sowing wind, but has it thought of the whirlwind it will reap?”
• September 25: In a special interview with IRGC mouthpiece Mashregh News, foreign policy analyst Assad-Allah Zarei said:  
  • “Regarding the present war, the theater is northern Palestine and southern Lebanon, meaning the distance between Beirut and Haifa, which is a vast territory. Why is the war taking place? Because the Israelis have changed their focus north. They say they need to calm the northern part, which is why they are attacking Hezbollah.” 
  • Asked if Israel is considering a ground invasion of Lebanon, Zarei said: “We can’t be certain … But the Israelis appear to be preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon. Their troop formation and what they are saying to their domestic audience indicate this … This is why Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah,” Lebanese Hezbollah secretary general, “in his latest speech said ‘If they want to come, we are ready to welcome them …’ The Israelis are risk prone, but their actions will come at an exorbitant cost, since Lebanese Hezbollah is prepared … Terrorist acts of the Zionists, including the pager crime and assassination of Hezbollah commanders, have not achieved their objectives.” 
  • “The Zionists admit Hezbollah’s strength has grown twentyfold since 2006. Therefore, should the Israelis … engage in a ground invasion, they may get closer to the abyss.”   

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